{ "ok": true, "cik": "1090727", "ticker": "UPS", "name": "UNITED PARCEL SERVICE INC", "filings": [ { "form": "8-K", "filed": "2026-08-31", "items": [ "5.02 Departure or Election of Directors; Appointment of Officers", "7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure", "9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits" ], "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1090727/000162828026059609/0001628280-26-059609-index.htm" }, { "form": "8-K", "filed": "2026-08-18", "items": [ "8.01 Other Events", "9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits" ], "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1090727/000110465926098351/0001104659-26-098351-index.htm" }, { "form": "8-K", "filed": "2026-08-12", "items": [ "8.01 Other Events", "9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits" ], "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1090727/000110465926094502/0001104659-26-094502-index.htm" }, { "form": "10-Q", "filed": "2026-08-05", "items": [], "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1090727/000162828026053249/0001628280-26-053249-index.htm" }, { "form": "8-K", "filed": "2026-07-28", "items": [ "2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition", "9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits" ], "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1090727/000162828026049912/0001628280-26-049912-index.htm" }, { "form": "8-K", "filed": "2026-06-15", "items": [ "5.02 Departure or Election of Directors; Appointment of Officers" ], "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1090727/000162828026043196/0001628280-26-043196-index.htm" } ], "events12m": 11, "healthWatch": { "window": "last 12 months", "since": "2025-09-26", "signals": [ { "code": "5.02", "label": "Director or officer change", "count": 5, "latest": { "filed": "2026-08-31", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1090727/000162828026059609/0001628280-26-059609-index.htm" } } ], "note": "Events the company itself filed with the SEC, most serious first. Shown beside the figures; they do not change the range or its receipt." }, "sources": { "facts": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001090727.json", "filings": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=1090727" }, "license": "Figures as filed with the SEC. Card text CC BY 4.0, POPS4.", "notAdvice": "Reporting, not investment advice. No price targets and no trading recommendations.", "edgar": "🫧 Edgar looked up UNITED PARCEL SERVICE INC ($UPS). Last filing: 8-K (5.02 Departure or Election of Directors; Appointment of Officers), 2026-08-31. 11 event filings (8-K) in the past twelve months.", "auditor": { "changes": [], "nonReliance": [], "restatedSince": null }, "metrics": { "fiscalYearEnd": "2025-12-31", "revenue": 88661000000, "revenueGrowth1y": -0.026452179642033613, "revenueGrowthPerYear": -0.022944005746722507, "yearsOfData": 5, "operatingMargin": 0.08873123470296974, "operatingMarginPrior": 0.09298341934775448, "netMargin": 0.06284612174462277, "operatingCashFlow": 8450000000, "capitalSpending": 3685000000, "freeCashFlow": 4765000000, "researchAndDevelopment": null, "researchShareOfRevenue": null, "cash": 5887000000, "longTermDebt": 23585000000, "longTermDebtChange": 0.12149310508796951, "revenueHistory": [ { "fiscalYearEnd": "2021-12-31", "revenue": 97287000000 }, { "fiscalYearEnd": "2022-12-31", "revenue": 100338000000 }, { "fiscalYearEnd": "2023-12-31", "revenue": 90958000000 }, { "fiscalYearEnd": "2024-12-31", "revenue": 91070000000 }, { "fiscalYearEnd": "2025-12-31", "revenue": 88661000000 } ], "totalEquity": 16227000000, "totalAssets": 73090000000, "equityRatio": 0.2220139553974552, "returnOnEquity": 0.3433783200838109, "dividendsPaid": 5398000000, "payoutRatio": 0.9687724335965542, "dividendPerShare": 6.56, "dividendYearsRising": 4, "dividendCut": false, "priceBased": "Dividend yield, price/earnings and price/book need a share price. The boards carry filings only, so they are not shown.", "earningsPerShare": 6.56, "sharesOutstanding": 850000000, "bookValuePerShare": 19.090588235294117, "revenuePerShare": 104.30705882352942, "range80": { "low": 76254045829.60172, "high": 90061249552.34369, "baseline": 85697294107.66507, "n": 1471, "band": "b10", "bandLabel": "$10B+", "method": "v4.1", "credibility": 0.5, "growthYears": 4, "ownVolatility": 0.05523109015853914, "classVolatility": 0.06659579566308972, "volatility": 0.06117790990259751 }, "ifPaceHeld": { "low": 76254045829.60172, "high": 90061249552.34369 } }, "edgarette": "🔖 Exposure: revenue $88.7B (FY2025), total debt $23.6B. Experience: revenue down 2.6% on the year, down 2.3% a year over 4 years; operating margin 8.9%, down from 9.3%. Soundness: equity 22.2% of assets, return on equity 34.3%, payout 96.9% of profit, dividend per share up 4 years running. Credibility: four or more audited years, reasonable weight. Range: 80% of past cases like this landed between $76.3B and $90.1B next year (method v4.1: its own 4-year record of growth weighed at 50% against $10B+ filers; on a year the method never saw, 83.4% landed inside). In a shock year the stress range is $70.9B to $96.3B. A statistical range, not company guidance. Against peers (10 filers, $50M+ revenue, its industry group): operating margin 8.9% against a 2.6% median; growth -2.6% against -2.2%.", "peers": { "sic": 4210, "sicDescription": "Trucking & Courier Services (No Air)", "calendarYear": 2025, "minRevenue": 50000000, "depth": 3, "group": "421", "growth": [ -0.0224, 10 ], "opMargin": [ 0.0257, 10 ], "equityRatio": [ 0.5603, 10 ], "returnOnEquity": [ 0.0403, 10 ] }, "summary": "United Parcel Service (UPS) saw revenue fall 2.6% in FY2025 to $88.7 billion, operating margin 8.9% against a 2.6% median for trucking & courier services (no air), equity 22.2% of assets, and dividend per share up 4 years running. Every figure is from the company’s own annual report filed with the SEC.", "chart": "
UNITED PARCEL SERVICE INC against its own record and its peers
Operating marginPeer median 2.6%8.9%Revenue, on the yearPeer median -2.2%-2.6%Equity of assetsPeer median 56.0%22.2%Return on equityPeer median 4.0%34.3%Payout of profit96.9%Gold tick: the median of 10–10 peers with $50M+ revenue in trucking & courier services (no air)
", "chartHorizon": "
Handed back now, or kept to compound
Of each dollar of profit96.9% paid outHanded back per share$6.56up 4 years runningGrowth its own profit can fund1.1%retained x return on equityRevenue growth it managed-2.6%last year, for comparison

Gold is paid out to shareholders; navy is kept in the business. Retained profit times return on equity is the pace a company can fund from itself. Facts from the filings, not a recommendation.

", "backtest": { "tests": 15, "hits": 11, "rate": 0.7333333333333333, "method": "v4", "byYear": { "2011": [ 1, 1 ], "2012": [ 1, 1 ], "2013": [ 1, 1 ], "2014": [ 1, 1 ], "2015": [ 1, 1 ], "2016": [ 0, 1 ], "2017": [ 0, 1 ], "2018": [ 1, 1 ], "2019": [ 1, 1 ], "2020": [ 0, 1 ], "2021": [ 1, 1 ], "2022": [ 1, 1 ], "2023": [ 0, 1 ], "2024": [ 1, 1 ], "2025": [ 1, 1 ] }, "note": "hindsight: the same credibility-weighted range on the company's own past years. Years 2018-2023 were used to fit or tune the method, so only 2025 outcomes are fully out of sample." }, "registry": { "logged": "2026-09-26T16:35:30.185Z", "hash": "ee6e65705da07c64", "status": "open" }, "caution": "Figures are as filed in audited 10-K reports and can move with restatements, acquisitions, disposals or a change in fiscal year. A range set from how past company-years turned out is not a promise about the next one, and says nothing about the share price.", "schema": "pops4.edgarette.card/1", "card": { "summary": "United Parcel Service (UPS) saw revenue fall 2.6% in FY2025 to $88.7 billion, operating margin 8.9% against a 2.6% median for trucking & courier services (no air), equity 22.2% of assets, and dividend per share up 4 years running. Every figure is from the company’s own annual report filed with the SEC.", "exposure": { "fiscalYearEnd": "2025-12-31", "revenue": 88661000000, "totalDebt": 23585000000, "cash": 5887000000 }, "experience": { "revenueGrowth1y": -0.026452179642033613, "revenueGrowthPerYear": -0.022944005746722507, "operatingMargin": 0.08873123470296974, "operatingMarginPrior": 0.09298341934775448, "netMargin": 0.06284612174462277, "freeCashFlow": 4765000000 }, "soundness": { "equityRatio": 0.2220139553974552, "returnOnEquity": 0.3433783200838109, "payoutRatio": 0.9687724335965542, "dividendPerShare": 6.56, "dividendYearsRising": 4, "dividendCut": false, "note": "Dividend yield, price/earnings and price/book need a share price. The boards carry filings only, so they are not shown." }, "peers": { "sic": 4210, "sicDescription": "Trucking & Courier Services (No Air)", "calendarYear": 2025, "minRevenue": 50000000, "depth": 3, "group": "421", "growth": [ -0.0224, 10 ], "opMargin": [ 0.0257, 10 ], "equityRatio": [ 0.5603, 10 ], "returnOnEquity": [ 0.0403, 10 ] }, "credibility": { "auditedYears": 5, "weight": "reasonable", "standard": "ASOP No. 25", "nonReliance": null, "auditorChange": null }, "healthWatch": { "window": "last 12 months", "since": "2025-09-26", "signals": [ { "code": "5.02", "label": "Director or officer change", "count": 5, "latest": { "filed": "2026-08-31", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1090727/000162828026059609/0001628280-26-059609-index.htm" } } ], "note": "Events the company itself filed with the SEC, most serious first. Shown beside the figures; they do not change the range or its receipt." }, "range": { "low": 76254045829.60172, "high": 90061249552.34369, "baseline": 85697294107.66507, "coverage": 0.8, "method": "v4.1", "basis": "next fiscal year revenue: baseline = revenue x (1 + mean of one-year and three-year pace); width = the company's own volatility of yearly growth, credibility-weighted against its size class (Buhlmann), scaled to the 80% target on 2023 and tested on 2024", "calibratedOn": { "companyYears": 1471, "sizeBand": "$10B+", "fitYears": [ 2018, 2022 ], "tuneYear": 2023, "testYear": 2024, "coverageOnTestYear": 0.8341 }, "credibility": { "weightOnOwnRecord": 0.5, "growthYears": 4, "ownVolatility": 0.05523109015853914, "classVolatility": 0.06659579566308972, "pricedVolatility": 0.06117790990259751, "k": 3 }, "stress": { "low": 70878321241.11697, "high": 96271904803.66579, "basis": "the same range with widths set to hold 80% across 2018-2023, pandemic years included" }, "kind": "a statistical range, not company guidance; no view on the share price", "track": { "backtest": { "tests": 15, "hits": 11, "rate": 0.7333333333333333, "method": "v4", "byYear": { "2011": [ 1, 1 ], "2012": [ 1, 1 ], "2013": [ 1, 1 ], "2014": [ 1, 1 ], "2015": [ 1, 1 ], "2016": [ 0, 1 ], "2017": [ 0, 1 ], "2018": [ 1, 1 ], "2019": [ 1, 1 ], "2020": [ 0, 1 ], "2021": [ 1, 1 ], "2022": [ 1, 1 ], "2023": [ 0, 1 ], "2024": [ 1, 1 ], "2025": [ 1, 1 ] }, "note": "hindsight: the same credibility-weighted range on the company's own past years. Years 2018-2023 were used to fit or tune the method, so only 2025 outcomes are fully out of sample." }, "registry": { "logged": "2026-09-26T16:35:30.185Z", "hash": "ee6e65705da07c64", "status": "open" }, "scorecard": "https://www.pops4.com/boards/scorecard" } }, "caution": "Figures are as filed in audited 10-K reports and can move with restatements, acquisitions, disposals or a change in fiscal year. A range set from how past company-years turned out is not a promise about the next one, and says nothing about the share price.", "sources": { "facts": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001090727.json", "filings": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=1090727" }, "speedCash": { "fiscalYear": 2025, "cashConversion": 0.0953, "growth3y": -0.0404, "volatility": 0.0552, "paysDividend": true, "raisedDividend": false, "equityRatio": 0.222, "quadrant": { "code": "ss", "label": "Slow and steady", "plain": "growing slower than its size class, with steadier revenue" }, "compass": { "code": "steady", "inside": "Turns 9.5% of revenue into operating cash; revenue shrinking 4.0% a year over three years; pays a dividend.", "outside": "Among $10B+ companies: 36th percentile for cash, 14th for growth.", "emoji": "🐂", "label": "Steady earner", "plain": "steady and paying a dividend, with average cash" }, "band": "$10B+", "cashPctInClass": 36, "growthPctInClass": 14, "source": "SEC XBRL frames, the company’s own audited figures; quadrant split at the median of its size class" }, "harbor": { "signs": [], "rule": "Boat condition = number of warning signs: a serious warning filing in 12 months; liabilities over assets; slow and jumpy; negative operating cash; an 80% revenue range of ±25% or wider.", "level": 0, "name": "New ship", "plain": "no warning signs" }, "cashFlow": { "fiscalYearEnd": "2025-12-31", "operating": 8450000000, "investing": -4735000000, "financing": -4141000000, "capitalSpending": 3685000000, "free": 4765000000, "trend": [ { "fiscalYearEnd": "2021-12-31", "operating": 15007000000, "free": 10813000000 }, { "fiscalYearEnd": "2022-12-31", "operating": 14104000000, "free": 9335000000 }, { "fiscalYearEnd": "2023-12-31", "operating": 10238000000, "free": 5080000000 }, { "fiscalYearEnd": "2024-12-31", "operating": 10122000000, "free": 6213000000 }, { "fiscalYearEnd": "2025-12-31", "operating": 8450000000, "free": 4765000000 } ], "note": "Annual, as filed in 10-K cash flow statements; negative investing/financing = cash going out (capital spending, buybacks, dividends, debt repaid)." }, "investments": { "fiscalYearEnd": "2025-12-31", "cash": 5887000000, "shortTerm": null, "longTerm": null, "equityHoldings": null, "totalAssets": 73090000000, "ladder": null, "currentRatio": 1.22, "unrealizedGain": null, "unrealizedLoss": 0, "note": "Balance-sheet cash and investment securities at fiscal year end, as filed; short-term = due or saleable within a year. Insurers and banks hold most of their book here." } }, "definitions": { "operatingMargin": "Operating income divided by revenue.", "netMargin": "Net income divided by revenue.", "freeCashFlow": "Cash from operations minus spending on property and equipment.", "researchShareOfRevenue": "Research and development expense for the year as a share of revenue, both as filed.", "equityRatio": "Shareholders equity as a share of total assets, both as filed. Higher means less of the company is owed to someone else.", "returnOnEquity": "Net income for the year against shareholders equity at year end.", "payoutRatio": "Dividends paid as a share of net income, in the year the cash went out.", "dividendYearsRising": "Consecutive years, counted back from the last on record, in which dividend per share rose. A fall ends the run and is reported as dividendCut.", "revenueGrowthPerYear": "Compound annual growth between the first and latest fiscal years shown.", "credibility": "How much weight a record deserves, in the actuarial sense (ASOP No. 25): more audited years, more weight.", "peers": "Medians of SEC filers with $50M+ revenue in the same industry code (SIC), narrowest group with at least 8 filers, calendar-year figures from SEC XBRL frames.", "backtest": "The same range method applied to the company's own past years, scored against what it actually reported next. Hindsight, and labelled so.", "healthWatch": "Distress-type events the company filed in the last 12 months (late-filing notices; 8-K items 1.03, 3.01, 2.04, 4.02, 4.01, 2.05, 2.06, 1.05, 5.02), each with its count and newest filing. Display only: they do not change the range or its receipt." }, "speedCash": { "fiscalYear": 2025, "cashConversion": 0.0953, "growth3y": -0.0404, "volatility": 0.0552, "paysDividend": true, "raisedDividend": false, "equityRatio": 0.222, "quadrant": { "code": "ss", "label": "Slow and steady", "plain": "growing slower than its size class, with steadier revenue" }, "compass": { "code": "steady", "inside": "Turns 9.5% of revenue into operating cash; revenue shrinking 4.0% a year over three years; pays a dividend.", "outside": "Among $10B+ companies: 36th percentile for cash, 14th for growth.", "emoji": "🐂", "label": "Steady earner", "plain": "steady and paying a dividend, with average cash" }, "band": "$10B+", "cashPctInClass": 36, "growthPctInClass": 14, "source": "SEC XBRL frames, the company’s own audited figures; quadrant split at the median of its size class" }, "harbor": { "signs": [], "rule": "Boat condition = number of warning signs: a serious warning filing in 12 months; liabilities over assets; slow and jumpy; negative operating cash; an 80% revenue range of ±25% or wider.", "level": 0, "name": "New ship", "plain": "no warning signs" }, "cashFlow": { "fiscalYearEnd": "2025-12-31", "operating": 8450000000, "investing": -4735000000, "financing": -4141000000, "capitalSpending": 3685000000, "free": 4765000000, "trend": [ { "fiscalYearEnd": "2021-12-31", "operating": 15007000000, "free": 10813000000 }, { "fiscalYearEnd": "2022-12-31", "operating": 14104000000, "free": 9335000000 }, { "fiscalYearEnd": "2023-12-31", "operating": 10238000000, "free": 5080000000 }, { "fiscalYearEnd": "2024-12-31", "operating": 10122000000, "free": 6213000000 }, { "fiscalYearEnd": "2025-12-31", "operating": 8450000000, "free": 4765000000 } ], "note": "Annual, as filed in 10-K cash flow statements; negative investing/financing = cash going out (capital spending, buybacks, dividends, debt repaid)." }, "investments": { "fiscalYearEnd": "2025-12-31", "cash": 5887000000, "shortTerm": null, "longTerm": null, "equityHoldings": null, "totalAssets": 73090000000, "ladder": null, "currentRatio": 1.22, "unrealizedGain": null, "unrealizedLoss": 0, "note": "Balance-sheet cash and investment securities at fiscal year end, as filed; short-term = due or saleable within a year. Insurers and banks hold most of their book here." } }