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Comcast$CMCSA · filed: saw revenue fall 0.0% in FY2025 to $123.7BNew shipTrillion Score 482Fall Risk LowNext year $112.3B–$128.4B sealedCheck ▾Close ▴
What Comcast filed
Saw revenue fall 0.0% in FY2025 to $123.7 billion, operating margin 16.7% against a 5.8% median for cable & other pay television services, equity 35.5% of assets, and dividend per share up 10 years running. Every figure links to the filing it came from on Comcast’s card. New ship: no warning signs. Trillion Score 482, #9 of 12 in its field; Fall Risk Low (how it is measured).
What the house said in advance
Revenue for the fiscal year after 2025-12-31 between $112.3B and $128.4B, an 80% range sealed on 26 Sept 2026 · receipt #81b903 · graded in public by the revenue in Comcast’s next annual report.
Figures as filed with the SEC. Ranges, scores and boats are statistical descriptions of past filings, not ratings or recommendations. Reporting, not advice.
In plain words
Comcast's structural unbundling separates stable broadband cash flow from volatile content losses, likely unlocking **$15-18 billion** in re-rating value.
12%
surge in pre-market trading to
$47.80
per share
$39 billion
in 2018
$55 billion
in enterprise value at current market multiples
Comcast filed formal notice Monday morning of a plan to spin NBCUniversal into a freestanding public company, triggering a 12% surge in pre-market trading to $47.80 per share. The separation will bundle NBCU with Sky, the European pay-television operator Comcast acquired for $39 billion in 2018, creating a combined media entity with roughly $55 billion in enterprise value at current market multiples. The cable distribution business—Xfinity broadband and legacy video subscribers—remains with Comcast proper.
The move reverses thirteen years of contested integration. Comcast closed its NBCU acquisition in January 2011 for $30 billion, arguing then that vertical integration between pipes and content would yield pricing power and cross-promotional leverage. That thesis has not survived the streaming era. NBCU launched Peacock in 2020, which has accumulated 30 million paid subscribers but operates at an estimated $2.8 billion annual loss. Bundling those losses with a stable but declining cable business created valuation ambiguity that kept the consolidated entity trading at 6.2x forward EBITDA, well below pure-play broadband comparables like Charter at 8.1x.
The structural clarity matters because it allows capital markets to price two distinct volatility profiles. The remaining Comcast will be a regulated-utility analog: 32 million broadband customers generating $64 billion in annual revenue with 43% EBITDA margins and minimal growth. The spun NBCU-Sky combination becomes a pure content play with exposure to advertising cyclicality, sports-rights escalation, and direct-to-consumer burn rates. Early estimates from Evercore ISI suggest the separated broadband entity could command a $120 billion market capitalization at current cable multiples, implying $15-18 billion in value unlock purely from re-rating.
Allocators should track three inflection points over the next six months. First, the formal S-1 filing, expected within 90 days, will disclose the exact debt allocation between the two entities—critical for yield-focused holders of Comcast's $94 billion in outstanding bonds. Second, NBCU's standalone guidance on Peacock path-to-profitability, which management has previously pegged to 2025 but has not updated since subscriber growth decelerated in Q2. Third, whether Sky retains its Premier League rights in the UK when the current contract expires in June 2025, a $1.8 billion annual commitment that defines the European asset's competitive moat.
The spin leaves Brian Roberts controlling both entities through Comcast's dual-class share structure, which grants the Roberts family 33.3% voting control despite owning just 1.4% of economic equity. That governance overhang has historically capped the parent's valuation. It now applies to two separately traded securities.
Branded by POPS4 · proof in 60 seconds
For the principal
Monitor debt allocation in the S-1; bondholder treatment determines whether this is yield-accretive or covenant-dilutive for existing exposure.
For the operator
Track NBCU's standalone Peacock guidance closely—if path-to-profitability shifts past 2025, the content entity trades materially lower than current implied valuation.
For the house
Initiate paired trade: long Comcast RemainCo via 2026 calls, short Warner Bros Discovery; structural clarity beats structural decline in cable.
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