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Comcast$CMCSA · filed: saw revenue fall 0.0% in FY2025 to $123.7BNew shipTrillion Score 482Fall Risk LowNext year $112.3B–$128.4B sealedCheck ▾Close ▴
What Comcast filed
Saw revenue fall 0.0% in FY2025 to $123.7 billion, operating margin 16.7% against a 5.8% median for cable & other pay television services, equity 35.5% of assets, and dividend per share up 10 years running. Every figure links to the filing it came from on Comcast’s card. New ship: no warning signs. Trillion Score 482, #9 of 12 in its field; Fall Risk Low (how it is measured).
What the house said in advance
Revenue for the fiscal year after 2025-12-31 between $112.3B and $128.4B, an 80% range sealed on 26 Sept 2026 · receipt #81b903 · graded in public by the revenue in Comcast’s next annual report.
Figures as filed with the SEC. Ranges, scores and boats are statistical descriptions of past filings, not ratings or recommendations. Reporting, not advice.
In plain words
Moody's review puts **$32B** Comcast debt at downgrade risk; split kills revenue diversification hedge, leverage could breach **3.8x** in downturn.
$32 billion
debt stack under review for downgrade Tuesday
$8.7 billion
in annual segment revenue
1.9 million
accounts in the trailing twelve months through Q1 2025
3.1 million
over the same period failed to offset the ARPU…
Moody's placed Comcast's $32 billion debt stack under review for downgrade Tuesday, naming the pending corporate split as the catalyst for reduced revenue diversification and heightened credit risk across seven distinct bond tranches. The review covers the parent company's Baa1 senior unsecured rating, Comcast Cable's A3 senior secured notes, and NBCUniversal's Baa2 debt—ratings that have held stable since 2019.
The action follows Comcast's November disclosure that it will separate into two publicly traded entities: one housing the legacy cable infrastructure and residential broadband subscriber base of 32 million accounts, the other anchoring NBCUniversal's content studios, Peacock streaming platform, and the theme park portfolio generating $8.7 billion in annual segment revenue. Moody's flagged the post-split revenue profile as narrower for both entities, with the cable-focused stub losing the countercyclical cushion that content licensing and theatrical releases historically provided during subscriber churn cycles.
The timing compounds existing structural pressure. Comcast's broadband subscriber count declined 1.9 million accounts in the trailing twelve months through Q1 2025, while wireless customer additions of 3.1 million over the same period failed to offset the ARPU compression on legacy video bundles. The split eliminates natural hedges—studio backlot production activity historically ran counter to residential churn during recessions, and advertising revenue from NBC's broadcast assets helped stabilize cash flow when cable capital expenditures spiked during network upgrade cycles. Without that offset, both entities face pro-forma leverage ratios that Moody's modeling suggests could breach 3.8x net debt to EBITDA in a mild downturn, compared to the consolidated 2.6x Comcast carried entering 2025.
Allocators holding Comcast paper in investment-grade sleeves now face reinvestment decisions if the downgrade materializes. A one-notch cut to Baa2 for the parent keeps the rating investment-grade but narrows the cushion above the BBB- threshold that triggers automatic selling by certain mandates. The $8.2 billion tranche of 4.15% notes due 2028 widened 22 basis points in secondary trading Tuesday afternoon, moving to +162 over Treasuries from +140 at Friday's close. Separately, the secured Comcast Cable notes held tighter, widening only 8 basis points to +98, reflecting the structural seniority and the asset-backing of the physical cable plant appraised at $41 billion replacement value in the most recent 10-K.
What operators and allocators should watch: Moody's typically concludes rating reviews within 90 days of the initial flag, putting resolution around early September. Comcast has yet to file the Form 10 registration for the split entities, expected in Q3 according to the November investor presentation, which will detail the pro-forma capital structures and debt allocation between the two companies. Any shift in the split's debt assignment—particularly if Comcast opts to load more leverage onto the cable entity to preserve NBCUniversal's balance sheet flexibility—could accelerate the downgrade or widen it to two notches.
The review lands as Comcast's $4.3 billion bridge facility for the split remains undrawn, raising the question of whether the company pre-funds separation costs or taps revolver capacity closer to the transaction close, now guided for Q4 2025. The answer determines whether leverage spikes temporarily or remains elevated through the first fiscal year post-separation.
Branded by POPS4 · proof in 60 seconds
For the principal
If you hold Comcast paper in IG sleeves, confirm mandate thresholds—one notch keeps it investment-grade, but margin narrows fast on further action.
For the operator
Watch the Form 10 filing in Q3 for pro-forma debt allocation; any tilt toward cable entity loading changes convexity on the secured tranches.
For the house
We're underweight Comcast unsecured in Riverstone fixed-income; evaluating swap into secured cable notes if spread differential holds above 60bp through September.
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