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EQT$EQT · filed: grew revenue 63.9% in FY2025 to $8.6BWeathered boatTrillion Score 473Fall Risk HighNext year $5.8B–$19.7B sealedCheck ▾Close ▴
What EQT filed
Grew revenue 63.9% in FY2025 to $8.6 billion, operating margin 37.6% against a 16.8% median for crude petroleum & natural gas, equity 56.8% of assets, and dividend per share up 4 years running. Every figure links to the filing it came from on EQT’s card. Weathered boat: two warning signs. Trillion Score 473, #38 of 49 in its field; Fall Risk High (how it is measured).
What the house said in advance
Revenue for the fiscal year after 2025-12-31 between $5.8B and $19.7B, an 80% range sealed on 26 Sept 2026 · receipt #7727f6 · graded in public by the revenue in EQT’s next annual report.
Figures as filed with the SEC. Ranges, scores and boats are statistical descriptions of past filings, not ratings or recommendations. Reporting, not advice.
In plain words
EQT's Kakaku.Com extension to August 17 suggests tender acceptance tracking below the **66.7%** threshold, with Q1 earnings August 9 offering final price-revision window.
¥3,200
per share for the Tokyo-listed price comparison platform
$3.9 billion
) assuming full acceptance
66.7%
of outstanding shares tendered to proceed
22%
foreign institutional ownership and
EQT filed Monday to extend its tender offer period for Kakaku.Com Inc. shares to August 17 from the original August 3 close. The Swedish private equity firm is bidding ¥3,200 per share for the Tokyo-listed price comparison platform, valuing the transaction at roughly ¥570 billion ($3.9 billion) assuming full acceptance. The extension marks the second procedural shift in a deal announced April, when EQT disclosed it had signed binding agreements with Kakaku.Com founder Makoto Okubo and Digital Garage Inc. to acquire their combined 31.8% stake.
Tender offer extensions in Japan typically signal one of three conditions: insufficient early acceptance to meet minimum thresholds, ongoing regulatory review requiring more disclosure time, or strategic patience to let institutional holders complete internal approval cycles. EQT structured this offer with a two-thirds acceptance condition, meaning it needs 66.7% of outstanding shares tendered to proceed. Kakaku.Com's shareholder base includes roughly 22% foreign institutional ownership and 14% domestic asset managers, constituencies that often wait until final days to tender. The founder and Digital Garage block delivers nearly half the required threshold before a single free-float share moves.
Kakaku.Com operates Tabelog, Japan's dominant restaurant review platform with 140 million monthly users, and Price.com, the country's largest product comparison site. The company reported operating profit of ¥18.2 billion on revenue of ¥54.7 billion for fiscal 2024, margins that reflect minimal capital intensity and network effects in two-sided marketplace models. EQT's thesis centers on accelerating Tabelog's shift from advertising revenue to transaction fees—reservation commissions and payment processing—where the platform captures 8-12% versus 2-3% on banner ads. Domestic precedent exists: Recruit Holdings transformed its restaurant vertical through similar moves before going public at a $45 billion valuation in 2018.
The extension also buys time during Japan's late-summer earnings season. Kakaku.Com reports first-quarter results August 9, six business days before the new tender deadline. If the company beats consensus estimates or raises full-year guidance, EQT preserves optionality to increase the offer price within the extended window—Japanese tender rules allow upward revisions with five business days' notice. The ¥3,200 bid represents a 28% premium to the 30-day VWAP before deal announcement but only 18x forward earnings, a modest multiple for a digital platform with 83% gross margins and negligible customer acquisition cost.
Allocators watching Japanese take-privates should monitor three near-term events: acceptance rate disclosure by August 10 under Tokyo Stock Exchange rules, Kakaku.Com's August 9 earnings call for any management commentary on the transaction, and whether EQT files a second extension or price revision between August 10-14. If acceptance sits below 50% by mid-next week, probability tilts toward either a 5-8% price bump or EQT walking under the two-thirds condition. The founder block is locked, but the $2.7 billion in free-float value remains in play.
Digital Garage holds 16.2% of Kakaku.Com and committed its entire stake to the tender. The company's chairman sits on Kakaku.Com's board, making this a controlled-party transaction under Japanese corporate law. That structure explains why EQT filed the tender as a voluntary offer rather than pursuing a scheme of arrangement, which would have required 90% acceptance for squeeze-out but faced higher regulatory scrutiny. The two-week extension costs EQT roughly ¥1.3 billion in annualized financing expense on the bridge commitment, assuming 3.5% all-in cost on the ¥570 billion enterprise value—immaterial against the ¥47 billion in equity check EQT commits if the deal closes.
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For the principal
August 9 earnings are the inflection point—if EQT revises price upward by August 14, acceptance probability jumps above seventy percent.
For the operator
Watch August 10 acceptance disclosure; below fifty percent flags either price bump or deal break under the two-thirds condition built into tender.
For the house
Short-dated vol on Kakaku.Com mispriced if EQT revises—calendar spread August-September captures potential five to eight percent price adjustment risk.
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