Family offices managing an estimated $6 trillion globally are executing the largest coordinated portfolio rotation since the 2020 liquidity flood, with 60% reporting lost confidence in dollar stability according to parallel research from UBS and Goldman Sachs published this month. The move affects approximately $4.3 trillion in liquid allocations, based on typical portfolio construction models for ultra-high-net-worth family balance sheets.
UBS's Global Family Office Report surveyed 311 single-family offices across 71 jurisdictions between November 2024 and January 2025. The dollar-confidence figure marks a 34-percentage-point decline from the 2022 survey cycle, when only 26% of respondents questioned currency stability. Goldman's separate Family Office Allocation Study, covering 225 offices with median assets of $1.9 billion, found 68% planning to increase risk-asset exposure over the next 18 months, up from 41% in their June 2024 survey. Both reports note the shift began accelerating in Q4 2024, coinciding with the $1.1 trillion Treasury refunding announcement and renewed debate over US fiscal trajectory.
The rotation mechanics matter more than the sentiment. Family offices are not fleeing to gold or Bitcoin in panic formation. They are methodically adding growth-stage private equity, direct lending at spreads above SOFR +650, and non-dollar-denominated real assets. UBS data shows allocation targets shifting from 38% public equities and 19% cash in 2023 to a projected 42% equities and 13% cash by end-2025. The 6-percentage-point cash drawdown flows primarily into private credit and direct deals, not liquid markets. Goldman notes 47% of surveyed offices have established or expanded direct-investment teams in the past 12 months, with average team size growing from 2.3 to 3.8 professionals. This is not tactical trading. This is structural reallocation with multi-year mandates and newly hired personnel to execute.
The currency dimension separates this cycle from prior risk-on rotations. Family offices are not shorting the dollar outright. They are reducing structural dollar exposure by diversifying operating-company domiciles, increasing euro and yen bond allocations, and moving custody relationships. UBS reports 34% of offices have opened or expanded non-US custody arrangements since mid-2024, compared to 12% in the prior survey. The mechanism is elegant: maintain dollar liquidity for opportunistic deployment, but reduce the percentage of total wealth denominated in or dependent on dollar stability. One Latin American office interviewed by Goldman described the strategy as "keeping dollars for deals, not for sleep." The implication is that the dollar remains the transaction currency but loses status as the wealth-preservation anchor.
Allocators should watch three follow-on developments. First, private credit fundraising from family-office anchors will likely accelerate through Q2 2025, with managers offering direct co-investment rights gaining preference. Second, currency hedging costs for non-dollar assets will compress as family offices build natural hedges through diversified revenue bases rather than paying forward premiums. Third, the next UBS survey cycle in mid-2025 will show whether dollar skepticism stabilizes or deepens; a move past 70% would indicate structural break, not cyclical concern. Goldman's team forecasts total family-office assets under management reaching $7.2 trillion by year-end 2025, meaning each percentage-point allocation shift moves approximately $72 billion.
The Yanne Capital H2 2026 outlook, published concurrently, projects family offices will deploy $840 billion into growth-stage equity and private credit over the next 18 months, with 62% of that capital originating from cash rebalancing rather than new wealth creation. That figure assumes the dollar-confidence trend continues and fiscal policy remains on its current trajectory, both of which held steady through the first 60 days of 2025.
The takeaway
Family offices are executing the largest structural rebalance since 2020, rotating $4.3 trillion from cash and dollar-heavy positions into private credit and direct equity with dedicated teams to manage the shift.
family officesdollarprivate creditallocationcurrencyrisk assets
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