Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness fund filed its first quarterly 13F disclosure with $31 million in notional Nvidia call options and accompanying semiconductor derivatives positions. The former OpenAI safety researcher, who published a widely-circulated memo predicting AGI timelines before his May 2024 departure, launched the fund in Q3 2024. The filing covers positions held as of December 31, 2024.
The fund held 85,000 contracts of Nvidia calls with strikes between $130 and $150, expiring in March and June 2025, alongside smaller positions in ASML, TSMC ADRs, and Marvell Technology options. The structure suggests directional conviction on Q1 and Q2 earnings beats rather than volatility harvesting. Nvidia traded at $138 at quarter-end, placing the bulk of contracts near-the-money. The filing shows no equity positions and no hedges, an unusual setup for a fund managing institutional capital. Aschenbrenner raised the initial capital from family offices and tech founders who attended his private AGI briefings in late 2023 and early 2024, according to people familiar with the fund's formation.
The disclosure arrives as capital formation around AGI forecasting moves from essay-driven signaling into actual deployment. Situational Awareness is not an AI venture fund; it is a liquid derivatives vehicle betting on the second-order effects of accelerated compute buildout. The timing matters. Nvidia reports Q4 fiscal 2025 earnings on February 26, with consensus expecting $0.84 per share on $37.5 billion revenue, a 69% year-over-year increase. Hyperscaler capex guidance for 2025, particularly from Microsoft and Meta, will determine whether March call positions remain viable. The fund's structure allows rapid repositioning if supply-chain signals shift, but the lack of downside protection implies Aschenbrenner expects no macro dislocation before mid-2025.
Two other AGI-themed allocators filed 13Fs this cycle. Threshold Ventures, backed by Reid Hoffman, disclosed a $12 million position in Cerebras and Nvidia shares, and Elad Gil's solo GP vehicle showed $8 million in Taiwan Semiconductor and Applied Materials equity. Situational Awareness is the only one using pure options leverage. The regulatory filing offers no commentary, but the portfolio construction speaks. If Nvidia sustains its current gross margin profile above 75% and hyperscaler demand holds through Q2 earnings in May, the March calls expire profitably and the June positions capture the next guidance cycle. If margins compress or Azure AI revenue growth decelerates, the fund has no equity cushion.
Allocators should monitor three events: Nvidia's February earnings call, Microsoft's April capex update, and the fund's next 13F in May, which will show whether Aschenbrenner rolled positions forward or closed them. The March expiration date, 30 days after Nvidia reports, creates a natural decision point. If the fund appears in the next filing with similar notional exposure but later expirations, the thesis remains intact. If the notional drops below $15 million, the bet failed or the conviction changed.
The filing confirms that capital pools focused on AGI timelines are now large enough to generate 13F-level disclosure. Whether they generate returns depends on whether compute demand curves continue bending upward through the back half of 2025.
The takeaway
Aschenbrenner's **$31M** Nvidia options play, with no hedges and March expiration, is a clean bet on Q1 earnings and sustained hyperscaler capex.
nvidiaderivatives13fagisemiconductorshedge-funds
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