Leopold Aschenbrenner, who left OpenAI after writing internal memos warning about compute scaling constraints, filed his first 13F as a fund manager. The disclosed portfolio holds $41 million across fifteen names, with 68% concentrated in three verticals: Bitcoin mining operators, natural gas utilities, and modular nuclear reactor developers. The largest single position is MARA Holdings at $8.2 million, followed by Riot Platforms at $6.1 million and Oklo Inc at $5.4 million. The filing covers positions as of December 31, 2024.
Aschenbrenner spent eighteen months at OpenAI working on superalignment and scaling law research before his departure in April 2024. His public essays since then have centered on a single thesis: whoever controls the next 100 gigawatts of dispatchable power in North America will control the next generation of frontier AI training. The 13F suggests he is trading that thesis in two directions simultaneously. Bitcoin miners own stranded energy contracts and can curtail load on twelve hours' notice, making them synthetic call options on wholesale power prices. Modular nuclear developers like Oklo are pre-revenue but hold NRC licensing pathways that legacy utilities do not.
The timing matters because the Stargate joint venture announced eighteen days ago committed $500 billion to AI infrastructure over four years, with no public clarity on where the electricity comes from. Aschenbrenner's positioning implies he expects two things: first, that hyperscalers will pay materially above wholesale rates for firm power with zero carbon intensity, and second, that Bitcoin miners will monetize their optionality by signing capacity contracts with those same hyperscalers. The trade works if power becomes the binding constraint before semiconductors do. The P/E ratios do not matter if the asset is the power purchase agreement, not the hashrate.
The portfolio also holds $3.7 million in Vistra Energy, the largest independent power producer in ERCOT, and $2.9 million in Constellation Energy, which operates the largest U.S. nuclear fleet. Both have signed or are in late-stage discussions on power deals with hyperscalers, according to earnings transcripts from January. Vistra's stock is up 41% since the Stargate announcement. Aschenbrenner entered after that move, suggesting he believes the re-rating has further to run. The underweight to Nvidia and Microsoft is notable by absence—he owns zero exposure to the model developers, only to the infrastructure they will compete for.
Allocators should watch two catalysts in the next ninety days. First, whether any of the Bitcoin miners disclose curtailment agreements or capacity sale pilots with unnamed AI infrastructure customers. MARA's CFO said on the Q4 call that the company is "in active discussions" but provided no detail. Second, whether Oklo's Aurora licensing application advances at the NRC, which would put the first commercial small modular reactor on a path to operation by late 2027. If neither happens, Aschenbrenner is paying a 240% implied volatility for options that may expire worthless. If both happen, the portfolio is a leveraged bet on the same energy bottleneck he warned OpenAI about in writing.
The 13F lists the fund name as Aschenbrenner Capital Management LLC, domiciled in San Francisco. The portfolio turnover will be visible in the next quarterly filing, due May 15, 2025. Until then, the thesis is on the table: power is the new compute, and the miners own the cheapest unallocated megawatts in North America.
The takeaway
Aschenbrenner is trading the energy bottleneck thesis with miners as synthetic power options and SMR developers as long-dated capacity calls.
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