LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton closed 2024 with €84.7 billion in revenue, down 2 percent organic from the prior year but ahead of the €83.9 billion analyst consensus compiled by Visible Alpha. The fourth quarter delivered €23.9 billion, a 1 percent organic decline that beat expectations for a 3 percent drop. For a company that spent eighteen months watching Chinese foot traffic evaporate and American aspirational buyers retreat, flat is the new up.
The fashion and leather goods division — Louis Vuitton, Dior, Fendi — posted €42.3 billion for the year, down 2 percent organically. Analysts had braced for worse. Fourth-quarter sales in the segment fell just 1 percent, the narrowest contraction since Q2 2023. Watches and jewelry, the smallest but most volatile unit, dropped 3 percent organically in Q4 after six quarters of double-digit declines. Selective retailing, which includes Sephora and DFS duty-free, rose 5 percent in the quarter, driven by North American cosmetics demand. Wines and spirits, still digesting post-lockdown Cognac inventory, fell 13 percent for the year.
The market read this as capitulation fatigue giving way to selective re-engagement. Chinese consumers spent less per transaction but returned to stores in Hainan and Shanghai with frequency not seen since early 2023. American handbag buyers, who had pulled back after 18 months of aspirational overspending, began rotating from entry-level canvas to mid-tier leather. LVMH did not guide, but CFO Jean-Jacques Guiony noted on the analyst call that January exit rates in Asia were "constructive," a word the company has not used since the Lunar New Year of 2023. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority reported HKD 47 billion in luxury retail sales for December, up 6 percent year-over-year, the first positive print in 11 months.
What matters for allocators is not the headline beat but the margin trajectory embedded in the mix. LVMH's operating margin compressed 150 basis points in 2024 to 26.3 percent, largely due to fixed costs in selective retailing and promotional depth in wines. The fashion division held margin at 39.1 percent, down 80 basis points, which implies Vuitton and Dior maintained price discipline while Fendi and Celine cleared Spring 2024 carryover. If Q1 2025 shows Asia revenue growth exceeding 3 percent and fashion margins holding above 38.5 percent, the thesis shifts from survival to operating leverage. Kering reports February 6, Hermès on February 7, and Richemont on February 20. If those three confirm Chinese stabilization, luxury multiples re-rate 12 to 15 percent by March.
Watch Chinese New Year sell-through data from Hainan duty-free in the week ending February 5, U.S. department store same-store sales for January reported mid-February, and LVMH's Q1 trading update due late April. The company has 23 million square feet of retail space in Greater China and turns inventory 3.2 times per year. Any acceleration in turn velocity shows up in Q1 revenue before it shows up in margin.
LVMH closed Tuesday at €698.50 in Paris, up 3.1 percent intraday but still 18 percent below its April 2023 high of €850. The equity trades at 21 times forward earnings, a 15 percent discount to its ten-year median. That discount persists until the market believes Chinese luxury demand is recovering, not resetting.
The takeaway
LVMH's Q4 beat is the first clean data point suggesting Chinese luxury demand has stopped falling; margin defense will determine re-rating speed.
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