LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton reported third-quarter revenue of €20.8 billion, up 9% organically, driven by accelerating demand in mainland China and continued resilience in Japan and South Korea. The Paris-based conglomerate's Fashion & Leather Goods division—52% of group revenue—posted 9% organic growth, exceeding the 6.5% consensus compiled by FactSet. Watches & Jewelry rose 7% organically; Selective Retailing, anchored by Sephora, grew 11%. The results mark the first sustained upturn in Chinese luxury demand since reopening in December 2022, when initial optimism faded by March amid uneven consumer confidence.
The China recovery is narrow. LVMH's performance contrasts sharply with Kering, which reported a 14% decline in Q3 revenue for Gucci—its largest brand—and a 15% drop in Asia-Pacific sales. Hermès, reporting the same week, delivered 11% growth in Asia excluding Japan, driven by leather goods and ready-to-wear at price points above LVMH's core offerings. The divergence reflects segmentation inside Chinese discretionary spend: ultra-high-net-worth households, largely insulated from property-sector malaise, continue buying Birkin bags and Kelly clutches. Upper-middle cohorts, more exposed to real-estate wealth effects, have returned to Louis Vuitton and Dior but remain selective. Kering's Gucci and Saint Laurent sit in the aspiration tier, where brand fatigue and macroeconomic caution converge.
LVMH's operating margin held at 27.1%, down 30 basis points year-over-year, despite higher marketing spend in Asia and store-expansion costs in Japan. The company opened 48 new points of sale in Q3, 23 in Asia-Pacific. Management noted that September sales in China accelerated compared to July and August, suggesting momentum into Golden Week, though they declined to quantify the inflection. Watches & Jewelry, historically volatile, benefited from TAG Heuer's repositioning and Tiffany's U.S. stabilization after two years of post-acquisition integration. Selective Retailing's 11% growth was entirely Sephora, which expanded 74 stores in North America and 31 in Europe.
The luxury rebound carries second-order implications for European equities more broadly. LVMH's performance, alongside Hermès, signals that Chinese household liquidity remains intact at the top quartile, even as property prices in Tier-1 cities have declined 8–12% from 2021 peaks. This cohort's resilience supports continued premiumization in travel, hospitality, and durable goods—sectors where European brands hold pricing power. However, the Kering shortfall underscores that brand equity is non-fungible: Chinese consumers did not substitute down; they delayed purchases or shifted to LVMH's portfolio. For allocators, this dynamic favors concentrated exposure to category leaders over diversified luxury baskets.
Watch LVMH's full-year guidance update in February, particularly commentary on U.S. leather goods and Cognac. Rémy Martin and Hennessy, part of the Wines & Spirits division, reported flat organic growth in Q3 as U.S. wholesalers destocked ahead of holiday orders. If that trend persists into Q4, it would pressure group margins by 40–50 basis points, offsetting Asia tailwinds. Also monitor Sephora's North American same-store sales in January; if momentum continues, it positions LVMH to outperform consensus 2024 EBITDA of €24.7 billion by 3–5%. The company has historically guided conservatively in post-election U.S. quarters.
LVMH shares rose 2.1% in Paris trading to €738, still 14% below the October 2023 peak of €858. The valuation gap reflects lingering uncertainty about Chinese property contagion and U.S. tariff risk under a second Trump administration. Neither has materialized, and neither is being priced out.
The takeaway
LVMH's 9% Q3 organic growth confirms Chinese luxury appetite is back—but only for brands with untarnished equity and pricing discipline.
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