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Micron Technology$MU · filed: grew revenue 256% in FY2026 to $133.2BSound shipTrillion Score 472Fall Risk MediumNext year $169.5B–$725.7B sealedCheck ▾Close ▴
What Micron Technology filed
Grew revenue 256% in FY2026 to $133.2 billion, operating margin 74.6% against a 2.4% median for semiconductors & related devices, equity 70.6% of assets, and dividend per share up 1 year running. Every figure links to the filing it came from on Micron Technology’s card. Sound ship: one warning sign. Trillion Score 472, #64 of 107 in its field; Fall Risk Medium (how it is measured).
What the house said in advance
Revenue for the fiscal year after 2026-09-03 between $169.5B and $725.7B, an 80% range sealed on 9 Oct 2026 · receipt #8096ac · graded in public by the revenue in Micron Technology’s next annual report.
Figures as filed with the SEC. Ranges, scores and boats are statistical descriptions of past filings, not ratings or recommendations. Reporting, not advice.
In plain words
Micron's **₩14 trillion** Hiroshima HBM bet with **50% Japanese subsidies** breaks Samsung-SK duopoly, but hinges on yield execution it has not yet proven.
$10.3 billion
) in capital commitments for next-generation high-bandwidth memory production…
40,000 wafer starts per month
by 2027
¥243 billion
in subsidies and loan guarantees
¥2 trillion
domestic semiconductor fund
Micron Technology announced ₩14 trillion (approximately $10.3 billion) in capital commitments for next-generation high-bandwidth memory production in Hiroshima, the largest foreign semiconductor investment in Japanese history. The facility targets HBM3E and HBM4 production for AI accelerators, with first wafers expected in late 2025.
The Hiroshima plant will add 40,000 wafer starts per month by 2027, roughly 15% of global HBM capacity at that point. Micron structured the commitment with Japanese Ministry of Economy backing worth ¥243 billion in subsidies and loan guarantees, part of Tokyo's ¥2 trillion domestic semiconductor fund. Samsung and SK hynix currently control 95% of HBM production; Micron's share sits at 3%, entirely from its legacy Idaho fab. The company has not opened a greenfield memory facility outside the United States since 2013.
The timing reflects margin pressure in commodity DRAM, where Micron reported 22% operating margins in fiscal Q1 2025, down from 38% a year prior. HBM sells at 5-7x the per-gigabyte price of standard DRAM, but requires clean-room precision Micron has struggled to demonstrate at scale. Nvidia currently qualifies only Samsung and SK hynix for H200 and B200 orders; Micron's HBM3E samples failed thermal testing in August 2024. This facility is the company's answer, built with Japanese yield expertise and state capital that doesn't appear on Micron's balance sheet as debt.
The investment puts Micron inside Japan's semiconductor perimeter alongside TSMC's Kumamoto fabs and Rapidus, Tokyo's 2-nanometer foundry project. All three benefit from the same subsidy structure, which covers up to 50% of capital expenditures in exchange for domestic employment and supply-chain redundancy. For Micron, the arrangement solves two problems: it diversifies manufacturing beyond China-adjacent Taiwan, where the company still produces 60% of DRAM, and it gives access to Hiroshima University's packaging labs, which pioneered through-silicon via techniques now standard in HBM stacking.
Operators should track Micron's yield ramp in Hiroshima against its guidance of 10,000 wafer starts by Q4 2026. The company has missed its last three yield targets in specialty DRAM. Watch for Nvidia's supplier qualification updates in May 2025 earnings; if Micron passes, its HBM pricing power improves materially. Japan's METI will publish subsidy utilization data in June 2025, showing whether Micron drew the full ¥243 billion or negotiated different terms. Samsung is expected to announce its own Japan fab decision by March 2025, likely in Yokkaichi, which would confirm the subsidy arbitrage is structural, not one-off.
The Hiroshima commitment is foreign capital pricing in the cost of losing China access without saying so. Micron's Taiwanese fabs ship $4.2 billion annually to Chinese customers; that revenue has 24-month legislative risk. Japanese subsidies convert geopolitical exposure into funded capacity, no tariffs, no CFIUS review.
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For the principal
Japanese state capital is subsidizing U.S. firms to de-risk Taiwan exposure; similar structures available in Arizona and Ohio if your portfolio has hard-tech exposure.
For the operator
Micron's HBM qualification timeline is the trade: long if Nvidia approves by June 2025, short if yield miss forces another delay and Samsung captures 2026 contracts.
For the house
No Micron exposure in named accounts; watching for Samsung's Japan response as confirmation before adding memory exposure in Kashiwagi Technology sleeve.
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