Starboard Value disclosed a stake in Autodesk on February 6, marking the San Francisco activist's first named target of the year. The position—size undisclosed but material enough to trigger 13D filing—sits inside a $69bn enterprise value software business trading at 8.2x forward revenue. Starboard now controls sufficient equity to force a special meeting, with proxy materials expected by mid-March.
Oasis Capital Management filed a 13D on Vail Resorts the same week, holding 4.1% of outstanding shares worth roughly $240mm at current prices. The Denver-based real estate investment vehicle cited underperformance relative to peers—Vail's five-year total return of 18% trails the S&P 500 by 62 percentage points. National Presto Industries, a $380mm market cap defense contractor and small appliance maker, drew a 13G from an unnamed institutional investor accumulating 6.8% of the float. Metalla Royalty & Streaming, a $210mm precious metals royalty play, saw two separate activists—one based in Toronto, one in New York—cross the 5% threshold within four trading days.
The simultaneity matters more than the individual stakes. February historically sees 23% fewer activist campaigns than October, the modal month for 13D filings. Five disclosed positions in the first six business days of the month suggests either compressed holding periods from late Q4 accumulation or coordinated timing around earnings blackout windows lifting. Autodesk reports Q4 results February 25; Vail on March 6. Both companies face annual meetings in late April or early May, leaving 11-13 weeks for proxy solicitation and board negotiation.
The sector spread is deliberate. Autodesk and Vail both trade at valuation premiums to sector medians—8.2x revenue versus 6.1x for application software peers, 14.3x EBITDA versus 11.8x for leisure operators—while posting margin compression. Autodesk's subscription transition added $1.2bn in deferred revenue over three years but operating margins contracted 420 basis points since fiscal 2021. Vail's EBITDA margin dropped 380 basis points year-over-year despite 7% lift ticket price increases. Activists read this as capital allocation failure, not industry headwinds.
National Presto and Metalla represent the lower end of activist market cap targeting, where board seats cost $8-12mm in proxy contest expenses rather than the $40-60mm required for large-cap fights. Metalla's $210mm market cap supports a royalty portfolio generating $18mm annual revenue with 91% gross margins, yet the stock trades at 0.86x net asset value. National Presto holds $440mm in cash and marketable securities against a $380mm market cap—a $60mm discount to liquidation value before assigning any value to ongoing operations. Both are classic sum-of-parts candidates.
Allocators should track three milestones. First, Autodesk's February 25 earnings call for management commentary on capital allocation—Starboard typically demands $500mm-1bn buyback authorizations or special dividends in software fights. Second, preliminary proxy filings in the EDGAR system between March 10-20, which will name specific board candidates and reveal whether activists are running solo or as a wolf pack. Third, ISS and Glass Lewis voting recommendations, usually published two weeks before annual meetings, which swing 18-22% of institutional votes in contested elections.
The house view: activism works when the math is obvious and the exit is clean. Autodesk and Vail meet both tests. The small-cap positions are noise unless a second fund joins each fight.