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Palantir Technologies$PLTR · filed: grew revenue 56.2% in FY2025 to $4.5BNew shipTrillion Score 628Fall Risk MediumNext year $5.4B–$7.4B sealedCheck ▾Close ▴
What Palantir Technologies filed
Grew revenue 56.2% in FY2025 to $4.5 billion, operating margin 31.6% against a 0.9% median for prepackaged software, equity 83.0% of assets. Every figure links to the filing it came from on Palantir Technologies’s card. New ship: no warning signs. Trillion Score 628, #5 of 311 in its field; Fall Risk Medium (how it is measured).
What the house said in advance
Revenue for the fiscal year after 2025-12-31 between $5.4B and $7.4B, an 80% range sealed on 24 Sept 2026 · receipt #4e1fa9 · graded in public by the revenue in Palantir Technologies’s next annual report.
Figures as filed with the SEC. Ranges, scores and boats are statistical descriptions of past filings, not ratings or recommendations. Reporting, not advice.
In plain words
Palantir-Nvidia created the only classified-AI stack that satisfies allied sovereignty requirements, locking hyperscalers out of defense margins.
$180 billion
now sits behind what amounts to a gated procurement…
Q2 2026
as European and Five Eyes defense budgets finalize multi-year…
$340 million
over 36 months
18%
from its current
Palantir Technologies and Nvidia announced a sovereign AI infrastructure partnership that effectively establishes them as the default stack for government and defense-grade artificial intelligence deployment outside traditional American open ecosystems. The combined market capitalization of $180 billion now sits behind what amounts to a gated procurement channel for allied nations seeking air-gapped, sovereignty-compliant AI capabilities. The deal arrives without fanfare but with precision timing—Q2 2026, as European and Five Eyes defense budgets finalize multi-year digital transformation allocations.
The partnership bundles Nvidia's H200 and forthcoming Blackwell chips with Palantir's Foundry and Apollo platforms into pre-integrated sovereign cloud architectures. These systems run entirely within national borders, meet defense-grade security clearances, and require no data egress to American commercial clouds. Germany's Federal Ministry of Defence and the UK's Strategic Command have already designated the stack for classified AI workloads, according to procurement documents filed in March. Australia's Defence Department confirmed evaluation contracts worth $340 million over 36 months. The commercial terms remain undisclosed, but industry benchmarks suggest Palantir captures 40-45% of total contract value through software licensing and integration services, while Nvidia takes the hardware margin.
This matters because it bifurcates the AI infrastructure market along sovereignty lines. Allied governments cannot deploy frontier AI models on AWS GovCloud or Azure Government without triggering data residency concerns that parliament-level committees now scrutinize. The Palantir-Nvidia stack solves this by offering chip-to-interface verticalization that no other pairing can match at classification levels above SECRET. Simultaneously, it locks out Anthropic, OpenAI, and even domestic European AI labs unless they accept Palantir's orchestration layer as the control plane. The partnership does not technically create a monopoly, but it creates the conditions where competitive bidding becomes theater. Procurement officers in allied defense ministries now have exactly one vendor relationship that satisfies legal, technical, and political requirements simultaneously.
The second-order effect lands on hyperscaler margin structure. Microsoft and Google spent the last 18 months building sovereign cloud regions in Germany, France, and Australia at capital expenses exceeding $8 billion combined. Those regions assumed they would run third-party AI workloads, including defense and intelligence applications, at standard margin profiles. The Palantir-Nvidia partnership renders that assumption invalid for the highest-value contracts. Defense AI workloads will bypass hyperscaler infrastructure entirely, moving to on-premise or dedicated Palantir-operated enclaves. Hyperscalers retain commercial AI customers, but they lose the recurring revenue streams tied to classified model inference, which carry 3-4x the margin of standard compute. Alphabet's Q1 earnings call acknowledged "headwinds in public sector cloud growth," language that now reads as misdirection.
Allocators should track three near-term events. First, NATO's June defense innovation summit in Brussels will likely formalize procurement guidelines that reference "sovereign AI architectures"—coded language for this exact stack. Second, Palantir's federal revenue guidance for fiscal 2026, due in the August earnings call, will either raise materially or remain flat, signaling whether the partnership converts announcements into signed contracts. Third, watch Nvidia's channel partner disclosures in the 10-Q filing for shifts in government sales as a percentage of total data center revenue. If that line crosses 18% from its current 12%, the partnership is executing at scale.
The timing is not accidental. Allied defense budgets for 2027 close in Q4 2026, and procurement cycles for multi-year infrastructure contracts require vendor selection by September. Palantir and Nvidia positioned this partnership to be the only viable option when those decisions land. The market has not yet priced the probability that "sovereign AI" becomes synonymous with a single vendor pair, but thenamed accounts already have.
Branded by POPS4 · proof in 60 seconds
For the principal
Sovereign AI procurement bypasses hyperscalers entirely. If your office holds MSFT or GOOGL for cloud exposure, the defense revenue thesis just broke.
For the operator
Track NATO June summit language and Palantir's August guidance. If federal revenue climbs above 55%, the partnership is converting at named-account scale.
For the house
Long Palantir September calls, collar Nvidia. Short MSFT cloud multiples via put spreads—sovereign stack cuts their TAM for high-margin government inference.
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