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Private credit redemptions ease but valuation friction persists; continuation-fund haircuts now run **11-13%** as LPs force repricing.
$1.8 trillion
private credit market—measured across direct lending
18-22%
week-over-week in the period ending August 2
$340 million
in new commitments during July
$1.1 billion
in March
Apollo Global Management reported this week that redemption requests across its private credit platform have declined sequentially, marking the first material deceleration in client withdrawals since early 2024. The $1.8 trillion private credit market—measured across direct lending, asset-based finance, and distressed strategies—held total AUM flat quarter-over-quarter for the first time in nine months. Business development companies BCP Investment and Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund both reported stabilizing net inflows in their latest filings, reversing a six-quarter trend of net redemptions that began in Q1 2023.
The shift arrives as limited partners recalibrate their private markets exposure following two years of denominator drift and liquidity strain. Apollo did not disclose absolute redemption figures, but filings indicate requests fell by an estimated 18-22% week-over-week in the period ending August 2. Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund reported $340 million in new commitments during July, the largest monthly inflow since September 2022. BCP Investment's redemption queue, which peaked at $1.1 billion in March, now stands at $680 million, a 38% decline. Fund managers attribute the stabilization to higher reinvestment rates among existing LPs and a moderation in institutional rebalancing trades that dominated the first half of the year.
The repricing pressure, however, remains unresolved. Ares Management sought to close a €1 billion continuation fund this week but failed to secure investor sign-off on the proposed valuation, according to two people familiar with the process. The deal—structured to roll forward a portfolio of European mid-market loans originated between 2019 and 2021—was pulled after anchor LPs rejected the 12.5x EBITDA multiple Ares used to mark the underlying assets. Secondary buyers countered at 10.8x, a 14% haircut that Ares declined to accept. The standoff mirrors broader tension in private credit pricing: managers defend book values using cash-flow coverage ratios, while buyers demand discounts that reflect rising base rates and tighter covenant enforcement. The gap has widened to an average of 11-13% across continuation-fund processes closed in the last 90 days, compared to 4-6% in 2022.
Allocators should monitor three developments over the next 60 days. First, whether Apollo's redemption deceleration persists through the September reporting cycle, which will include updated figures from Blackstone Credit and KKR's direct lending platform. Second, the outcome of Ares' repricing negotiation—if it closes at the LP-demanded discount, expect a cascade of mark-to-market adjustments across competing platforms. Third, the quarterly filings from the top 15 BDCs, due by mid-September, which will confirm whether inflows have genuinely turned or simply paused. Fund managers have already begun adjusting distribution yields upward to attract new capital; the median BDC now offers a 10.2% trailing yield, up from 9.1% in March.
The market is not recovering. It is repricing. The $1.8 trillion figure reflects valuation stability, not growth, and the gap between manager marks and secondary bids suggests the denominator has not yet adjusted to the new cost of capital.
Branded by POPS4 · proof in 60 seconds
For the principal
If you hold legacy vintage private credit funds, request updated portfolio-company EBITDA multiples and compare to secondary-market clearing prices before year-end liquidity decisions.
For the operator
Track BDC distribution-yield spreads against CLO AAA tranches; widening differentials signal capital allocation shifting back toward liquid credit as redemption queues compress further.
For the house
We are holding Blackstone Credit positions unchanged through September filings but preparing to rotate $120-150 million into structured credit if continuation-fund discounts exceed 15%.
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