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SpaceX's return to IPO price after Nasdaq-100 inclusion reveals weak institutional appetite at **$240 billion**; lockup expiry in **90 days** is the next catalyst.
$135
IPO price on Friday
$150
following inclusion in the Nasdaq-100
$240 billion
near the valuation at which underwriters placed the offering
$3-5 billion
in passive inflows as tracker funds rebalance
SpaceX closed within two percent of its $135 IPO price on Friday, erasing the gains from a month-old listing that had briefly lifted shares above $150 following inclusion in the Nasdaq-100. The stock fell for a second consecutive session, marking the first material test of demand outside the controlled pre-IPO allocation window. Elon Musk's combined space and AI enterprise now trades at approximately $240 billion, near the valuation at which underwriters placed the offering.
The company went public four weeks ago in what became the largest IPO by gross proceeds since Saudi Aramco. SpaceX fixed its pricing at $135 before the roadshow, an unusual structure that removed traditional price discovery but allowed the firm to avoid last-minute negotiation with institutional allocators. Nasdaq added the stock to its benchmark index last Monday, a faster-than-typical inclusion that ordinarily brings $3-5 billion in passive inflows as tracker funds rebalance. That buying did not prevent the subsequent two-day decline.
The retreat matters because it exposes the gap between Musk's pricing authority and the market's willingness to carry a $240 billion valuation on a company that reported $11 billion in revenue last year across Starlink subscriptions, launch contracts, and early-stage AI infrastructure sales. SpaceX operates the world's only reusable orbital rocket fleet and the largest commercial satellite constellation, but it remains subscale relative to legacy aerospace primes and unprofitable in its AI division. The IPO gave Musk $27 billion in primary capital, which he has earmarked for Starship development and data center buildout in Texas. If the stock cannot hold above the IPO price within the first 60 days, secondary liquidity for employee shareholders deteriorates and follow-on equity becomes harder to price.
Index inclusion typically provides a durable valuation floor because passive funds must hold the position regardless of near-term sentiment. The fact that Nasdaq-100 buying failed to stabilize SpaceX suggests either that active managers sold into that demand or that the passive bid was smaller than the $5 billion analysts had estimated. The company's prospectus disclosed that 78 percent of the float is held by Musk-controlled entities and a small group of pre-IPO venture funds, leaving a tradable float under $50 billion. Thin float amplifies price swings, but it also means fewer natural sellers once weak holders exit.
Allocators should watch whether SpaceX holds the $135 level through month-end and how the stock behaves during its first earnings release, expected in mid-May. If the AI infrastructure revenue run rate exceeds $2 billion annualized, the valuation multiple compresses and the retreat becomes a entry point. If Starship's fourth orbital test—scheduled for late April—fails, the stock will likely test $120 as the market reprices technical risk. The lockup for employee shares expires in 90 days, which will either confirm or break the current price equilibrium.
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For the principal
If you hold SpaceX from the IPO allocation, the $135 level is your decision point before lockup expiry brings secondary supply in May.
For the operator
Watch the $120-135 range for accumulation; thin float and upcoming Starship test create asymmetric risk before mid-May earnings.
For the house
Huang Goodman holds no position; monitoring for a sub-$125 entry if lockup selling materializes or Starship test fails to hold schedule.
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