SpaceX shares returned to their $135 IPO price within thirty days of the February public offering, erasing gains that briefly valued Elon Musk's aerospace and AI conglomerate above $250 billion. The stock declined for a second consecutive session despite Nasdaq-100 index inclusion last week, a mechanical bid that typically stabilizes newly public names through $3-5 billion in passive inflows.

The company priced 180 million shares at $135 in what became the largest technology IPO since Alibaba's 2014 debut. SpaceX's decision to fix pricing ahead of the roadshow—bypassing traditional price discovery—generated $24.3 billion in gross proceeds but left no valuation cushion for post-listing volatility. First-day trading saw the stock reach $158, a 17% pop that proved unsustainable as March rate volatility returned and growth multiples compressed across the index.

The equity weakness mirrors deterioration in SpaceX's corporate bond complex, where spreads on the company's 2029 notes widened 40 basis points over two weeks to trade at +185bp over Treasuries. Credit analysts note the move prices material execution risk into both the Starlink broadband buildout—which requires $8-12 billion in annual capex through 2027—and the unproven economics of SpaceX's AI infrastructure pivot, announced three weeks before the IPO roadshow began. The bond market now prices 22% cumulative default probability through 2029, compared to 14% at issuance in January.

Allocators face a familiar post-IPO pattern: passive inclusion creating temporary support against fundamental repricing. Nasdaq-100 rebalancing completes Friday, after which the $3.2 billion mechanical bid dissipates. The company reports first quarterly earnings as a public entity April 24, where revenue guidance for the Starlink consumer business and updated AI capital deployment plans will clarify whether current margins sustain at scale. Credit markets are pricing doubt; equity holders who bought the IPO at $135 now own that doubt at par.

SpaceX's capital structure carries $47 billion in net debt against $31 billion trailing revenue, a leverage profile acceptable for regulated utilities but unusual for a company simultaneously scaling satellite infrastructure and competing in AI model training. The company's disclosure indicates $18 billion in cumulative capex obligations through 2026 for the next 12,000 Starlink satellites alone, before accounting for AI data center builds or Starship development costs.

The IPO timing—February 2025, after the Fed pivoted hawkish in January—meant SpaceX entered public markets as growth multiples contracted and corporate credit spreads widened across technology. The fixed-price structure, while generating headlines, removed the traditional underwriter safety valve: a last-minute pricing cut to ensure first-day performance. That decision now leaves early buyers underwater at the issue price while bond investors reprice term credit risk in real time.

What the bond market sees: $47 billion in debt supporting two capital-intensive businesses with unproven unit economics at scale. What equity indexes mechanically bought: a $240 billion market cap based on revenue growth assumptions that predate the current rate environment. The spread between those views is 40 basis points and widening.