Shares of Space Exploration Technologies traded below $135 for the first time this week in private secondary markets, breaching the company's internal reference price set during its most recent tender offer. The move marks the first time since SpaceX established the $135 floor in late 2024 that private holders have accepted less, with at least three transactions clearing between $132 and $134 on Thursday morning, according to two brokers handling SpaceX secondary volume.
The weakness arrives as SpaceX prepares for a public offering expected in the second half of 2025 or early 2026, with the company now valued at approximately $350 billion in private markets. Simultaneously, Elon Musk has initiated discussions to merge SpaceX with at least two of his other entities—xAI, the artificial intelligence venture valued at $50 billion in its December round, and The Boring Company, his tunnel-construction concern. No term sheets have circulated, but three people familiar with the conversations say Musk is exploring structures that would consolidate engineering talent and balance-sheet capacity ahead of a public filing. One structure under review would fold xAI's compute infrastructure into SpaceX's Starlink satellite network, creating a vertically integrated AI-communications business with $8 billion in annual revenue.
The timing matters. Meta Platforms traded below its $38 IPO price for more than a year after going public in May 2012, eventually recovering to become one of the decade's best-performing technology stocks. SpaceX's secondary weakness reflects typical pre-IPO jitters—early employees seeking liquidity, late-stage funds rebalancing exposure—not fundamental deterioration. Starlink is now cash-flow positive, generating approximately $200 million per month in EBITDA, and the Starship program remains on schedule for orbital refueling tests in Q2 2025. What allocators should note is that Musk historically uses secondary-market softness to consolidate ownership. He bought Tesla shares in 2018 and 2019 when private bids fell, and three people close to the SpaceX board say he has expressed interest in purchasing up to $2 billion of shares from departing employees if prices remain below $140.
The merger discussions introduce a new variable. If Musk consolidates xAI and Boring into SpaceX before the IPO, the combined entity would carry both higher revenue—approaching $10 billion annually—and greater complexity. xAI's compute costs are substantial, and Boring's tunnel projects remain speculative. But the combination would also create a single Musk vehicle for public markets, reducing the need for future offerings from each subsidiary and giving allocators one liquid instrument for exposure to Musk's portfolio. The alternative scenario, where SpaceX files alone and the other entities remain private, leaves family offices and funds with fragmented exposure and no clear path to liquidity in xAI or Boring.
Allocators should watch three events over the next sixteen weeks. First, whether SpaceX initiates a tender offer at or above $135 to stabilize the secondary market and signal confidence ahead of the S-1 filing. Second, any announcement of formal merger terms or structure for xAI and Boring, which would likely arrive through an investor letter or board resolution before the IPO roadshow. Third, the outcome of Starship's next orbital test, currently scheduled for late April, which remains the technical milestone most closely correlated with investor sentiment in SpaceX's private rounds. A successful refueling demonstration would likely restore the $135 floor without intervention.
The real story is not the breach—it is what Musk does with it. He has never let a secondary market dictate terms, and the merger talks suggest he is already positioning for the next capital structure, not reacting to the last one.
The takeaway
SpaceX secondary trades below $135 as Musk explores xAI and Boring consolidation ahead of IPO filing expected in six to twelve months.
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