SpaceX shares have fallen 44% from their post-IPO peak seven weeks after going public, settling near $134 from an intraday high of $239 reached in late February. The decline erased roughly $88 billion in market capitalization and left early public buyers underwater ahead of the company's first earnings report, expected Thursday after the bell. The stock opened at $175 on its January debut.
The selloff accelerated in the third week of March as momentum buyers who chased the IPO rally met profit-taking from venture-stage holders who had waited years for liquidity. Trading volume spiked to 41 million shares on March 18, more than triple the 20-day average, as the stock breached its IPO price. Institutional demand has been uneven: Fidelity and T. Rowe Price added modest positions in the second week post-listing, while Cathie Wood's ARK Innovation ETF trimmed its stake by 18% over the same period. The disconnect between early euphoria and subsequent distribution is textbook for large-cap IPOs with deferred insider lockups.
The timing compounds risk. SpaceX's lockup expires in two tranches: 20% of insider shares unlock May 1, with the remainder on July 1. If the company reports weaker-than-expected revenue or margin compression from Starlink subscriber churn, the overhang becomes acute. Consensus estimates call for $14.2 billion in quarterly revenue, implying 22% year-over-year growth, but analysts have wide confidence intervals on free cash flow due to Starship development burn and satellite manufacturing costs. A miss on adjusted EBITDA—pegged at $3.1 billion—would likely send the stock below $120, putting it 49% off the high and forcing capitulation among those who entered post-IPO. The alternative matters too: a beat with raised guidance could trigger a short squeeze, given that 11.2% of the float is sold short as of the last settlement.
Allocators should watch three catalysts in the 72 hours following earnings. First, whether Elon Musk reaffirms the 400-satellite-per-month Starlink production target or scales it back. Second, any commentary on NASA's Artemis contract cadence and whether milestone payments are on schedule. Third, the tone on Starship commercialization—specifically, whether paying customers beyond NASA are under contract for 2026 launches. If management stays vague on margin trajectory or customer concentration, the stock will trade like a pre-revenue growth name despite $57 billion in trailing revenue.
The May 1 lockup expiry will release 187 million shares, or 8.4% of the current float, with early employees and Founders Fund among those eligible to sell.