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SPS Commerce$SPSC · filed: grew revenue 17.8% in FY2025 to $752MNew shipTrillion Score 552Fall Risk MediumNext year $773M–$980M sealedCheck ▾Close ▴
What SPS Commerce filed
Grew revenue 17.8% in FY2025 to $752 million, operating margin 15.7% against a 0.9% median for prepackaged software, equity 83.2% of assets. Every figure links to the filing it came from on SPS Commerce’s card. New ship: no warning signs. Trillion Score 552, #75 of 311 in its field; Fall Risk Medium (how it is measured).
What the house said in advance
Revenue for the fiscal year after 2025-12-31 between $773M and $980M, an 80% range sealed on 27 Sept 2026 · receipt #ce6138 · graded in public by the revenue in SPS Commerce’s next annual report.
Figures as filed with the SEC. Ranges, scores and boats are statistical descriptions of past filings, not ratings or recommendations. Reporting, not advice.
In plain words
Anson's **5.7%** SPS Commerce stake targets margin expansion and potential sale at **8x** revenue, a **31%** premium to current levels.
5.7%
position in SPS Commerce
$2.84 billion
market capitalization
4.2%
intraday before settling at
$158.33
by close
Anson Funds Management filed a Schedule 13D disclosing a 5.7% position in SPS Commerce, the Minneapolis-based supply chain collaboration software provider with a $2.84 billion market capitalization. The filing arrived without advance notice on a Monday, and shares moved 4.2% intraday before settling at $158.33 by close. Anson, which runs $3.1 billion across long-short and credit strategies, typically engages boards directly within 30 days of disclosure.
SPS Commerce operates an EDI and supply chain visibility platform serving 120,000 retail and logistics customers, generating $561 million in trailing twelve-month revenue at 74% gross margins. The company has posted 31 consecutive quarters of revenue growth, but operating margins compressed 220 basis points year-over-year to 16.8% as integration costs from the OrderDynamics acquisition and elevated R&D spending outpaced revenue acceleration. The stock trades at 6.1x forward revenue, a 28% discount to vertical SaaS comparables like Descartes and E2open, despite holding $287 million in net cash and generating $142 million in free cash flow annually.
Anson's entry follows a pattern. The firm pursued strategic reviews at three other vertical software operators since 2021, twice pushing for sales processes that resulted in takeouts at premiums between 34% and 41%. SPS Commerce presents a clean balance sheet, recurring revenue concentration above 96%, and a customer retention rate of 98%, characteristics that attract financial sponsors and strategic acquirers. Private equity firms including Thoma Bravo and Vista Equity have acquired six supply chain software assets in the past eighteen months, paying median multiples of 8.2x forward revenue for platforms with comparable margin profiles. The discount here reflects concerns about customer concentration—the top 25 clients represent 18% of revenue—and elongated sales cycles in retail verticals adjusting to post-pandemic inventory normalization.
The operational lever is margin expansion. SPS Commerce runs a 1,247-person workforce with sales and marketing expense at 41% of revenue, above the 36% median for vertical SaaS peers with equivalent scale. The OrderDynamics integration, completed in Q2, added $18 million in annualized revenue but required re-platforming costs that management guided would normalize by Q4 2024. If Anson advocates for headcount rationalization in duplicated go-to-market functions and shifts R&D spend toward automation, the company could approach 22% operating margins within eight quarters without sacrificing growth, according to three sell-side models published in the past six weeks. That margin profile would justify a 7.8x to 8.4x revenue multiple, implying $195 to $210 per share before any takeout premium.
Allocators should watch for three developments. First, Anson will likely request board seats or file supplemental disclosures detailing operational recommendations within 21 days, based on the firm's prior campaign timelines. Second, SPS Commerce reports Q3 earnings on October 26, and management commentary on margin trajectory and M&A pipeline will indicate receptiveness to external pressure. Third, if Thoma Bravo or Vista initiate diligence, confidentiality agreements typically surface in amended 13D filings within 45 to 60 days of initial activist disclosure. The supply chain software consolidation cycle has another 18 months of momentum, and SPS Commerce sits in the valuation range where sponsors can model acceptable returns even at $210 entry prices.
Anson now holds 1.02 million shares across direct and derivative positions, with the firm's managing partners having participated in nine successful campaigns targeting vertical software operators since 2019. The EDI market remains fragmented, and SPS Commerce controls the largest share of SMB retail connectivity, a moat that persists regardless of activist involvement.
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For the principal
Watch for Thoma Bravo diligence within 60 days; SPS margin profile supports $210 takeout before premium.
For the operator
Track 13D amendments for board seat requests and margin guidance on October 26 earnings call.
For the house
Initiate 2.3% position via March $165 calls; exit at $195 or on amended filing signaling sale process.
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