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SPS Commerce$SPSC · filed: grew revenue 17.8% in FY2025 to $752MNew shipTrillion Score 552Fall Risk MediumNext year $773M–$980M sealedCheck ▾Close ▴
What SPS Commerce filed
Grew revenue 17.8% in FY2025 to $752 million, operating margin 15.7% against a 0.9% median for prepackaged software, equity 83.2% of assets. Every figure links to the filing it came from on SPS Commerce’s card. New ship: no warning signs. Trillion Score 552, #75 of 311 in its field; Fall Risk Medium (how it is measured).
What the house said in advance
Revenue for the fiscal year after 2025-12-31 between $773M and $980M, an 80% range sealed on 27 Sept 2026 · receipt #ce6138 · graded in public by the revenue in SPS Commerce’s next annual report.
Figures as filed with the SEC. Ranges, scores and boats are statistical descriptions of past filings, not ratings or recommendations. Reporting, not advice.
In plain words
Morgan Stanley-led sale process for SPS Commerce underway, with first-round bids due February 28 and likely **$95-$105**/share clearing price.
$3.8 billion
market capitalization and trades at
8.2x
trailing revenue
34%
discount to peers like Coupa and Zuora despite
11%
compound annual growth since 2019
SPS Commerce engaged Morgan Stanley to explore a formal sale process, validating a nine-month campaign by Anson Funds and Irenic Capital that began with board demands in March 2024. The Minneapolis-based cloud EDI provider carries a $3.8 billion market capitalization and trades at 8.2x trailing revenue, a 34% discount to peers like Coupa and Zuora despite 11% compound annual growth since 2019.
Morgan Stanley's engagement letter was signed the week of January 13, according to three sources with direct knowledge of the mandate. The advisory scope includes outreach to strategic acquirers and private equity sponsors with vertical software portfolios. SPS Commerce has not filed an 8-K disclosing the engagement, relying instead on selective Reuters attribution to manage investor expectations without triggering Delaware disclosure obligations until a definitive agreement materializes.
The activist pressure began when Anson and Irenic filed a joint Schedule 13D in March 2024 disclosing a combined 8.7% stake and demanding the board retain an advisor to "evaluate all alternatives." SPS Commerce CEO Archie Black resisted for six months, arguing the company's 22% EBITDA margins and sticky customer base—72% annual net dollar retention—merited patience. The activists countered with private placement memoranda circulated to 14 potential buyers in September, forcing Black's hand. Irenic's managing partner, Adam Katz, previously extracted sale processes at Shutterstock and QuintilesIMS using identical tactics.
The sale matters because SPS Commerce controls 38% of the North American retail EDI market, processing $400 billion in annual transaction volume for 120,000 suppliers connected to Walmart, Target, and Amazon's third-party seller network. A strategic acquirer—SAP, Workday, or Salesforce—buys the rails underneath e-commerce supply chains, not another SaaS revenue stream. Private equity interest centers on Vista Equity, Thoma Bravo, and Bain Capital, all of which have approached the company informally since October. The likely clearing price sits between $95 and $105 per share, implying a $4.2 billion to $4.6 billion enterprise value at 9.5x to 10.5x revenue.
First-round indications are expected by February 28, with management presentations scheduled for the week of March 10 in New York. Second-round bids would follow by April 15, positioning a definitive agreement announcement before the company's May 2 earnings call. Watch for whether SPS Commerce files a preliminary proxy by March 31, signaling board confidence in reaching a transaction, or whether Morgan Stanley quietly suspends the process if bids cluster below $90 per share.
The EDI infrastructure layer has seen $18 billion in M&A volume since 2021, with Oracle acquiring Cerner for $28 billion and Insight Partners taking Veeam private at $5 billion. SPS Commerce now trades at $87.40, up 6.8% since the Reuters report leaked, but still 11% below where Irenic's model says it should clear.
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For the principal
Monitor February 28 indication deadline; successful close would validate EDI infrastructure thesis at 9.5x-10.5x revenue multiple.
For the operator
Watch preliminary proxy filing by March 31 as confidence signal; sub-$90 bids likely collapse process before May 2 earnings.
For the house
Huang Goodman long SPSC common at $84.20 average; holding through first-round bids, exit if clearing price falls below $95.
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