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Sterling Infrastructure$STRL · filed: grew revenue 17.7% in FY2025 to $2.5BNew shipTrillion Score 639Fall Risk MediumNext year $2.5B–$3.1B sealedCheck ▾Close ▴
What Sterling Infrastructure filed
Grew revenue 17.7% in FY2025 to $2.5 billion, operating margin 16.3% against a 4.0% median for heavy construction other than bldg const - contractors, equity 42.1% of assets. Every figure links to the filing it came from on Sterling Infrastructure’s card. New ship: no warning signs. Trillion Score 639, #1 of 10 in its field; Fall Risk Medium (how it is measured).
What the house said in advance
Revenue for the fiscal year after 2025-12-31 between $2.5B and $3.1B, an 80% range sealed on 27 Sept 2026 · receipt #a896f1 · graded in public by the revenue in Sterling Infrastructure’s next annual report.
Figures as filed with the SEC. Ranges, scores and boats are statistical descriptions of past filings, not ratings or recommendations. Reporting, not advice.
In plain words
Sterling wagered **37%** of its infrastructure backlog on CHIPS Act execution risk—the next disbursement cycle determines if that's prescience or overexposure.
$1.2 billion
of its current e-infrastructure backlog—37% of the segment total—now…
$640 million
in new semiconductor-related work during the final six months…
22 months
compared to
14 months
for traditional data center work
Sterling Infrastructure disclosed in regulatory filings that $1.2 billion of its current e-infrastructure backlog—37% of the segment total—now ties directly to semiconductor fabrication projects, up from 11% in Q3 2023. The shift marks a calculated pivot by a company that spent the prior decade building data centers and power substations, not cleanrooms.
The company booked $640 million in new semiconductor-related work during the final six months of 2024, including site preparation contracts at two undisclosed Arizona facilities and electrical infrastructure at a Texas fab tied to a major memory manufacturer. Sterling's average project duration in the semiconductor vertical runs 22 months, compared to 14 months for traditional data center work, extending revenue visibility but compressing margin velocity. The company disclosed gross margins of 12.4% on fab work versus 15.1% on hyperscale data center projects, a function of performance bond costs and specialized labor premiums.
This matters because Sterling is threading a narrower needle than its guidance suggests. The CHIPS Act authorized $52.7 billion in subsidies, but Treasury has awarded only $36 billion to date, with $11 billion of that still conditional on milestone achievement. Sterling's backlog assumes $890 million in work tied to projects awaiting final federal disbursement. If two currently stalled awards—totaling $6.2 billion in government support—face delays beyond Q3 2025, Sterling's 2026 revenue guide of $2.8 billion becomes difficult without margin dilution elsewhere. The company's CFO noted on the February 12th call that semiconductor projects carry 60-day longer payment cycles than commercial data center work, a detail that will matter when free cash flow conversion lands below 80% for the third consecutive quarter.
The second-order effect sits in labor arbitrage. Sterling subcontracts 68% of its semiconductor work to union electricians and pipefitters, compared to 41% subcontractor exposure on data center builds. Prevailing wage requirements on CHIPS Act projects add $14-$19 per hour to labor costs, and Sterling's ability to pass those through depends on whether its contracts include inflation escalators—only 53% do. If the Laborers' International Union secures the 8.2% wage increase it's seeking in the Southwest regional agreement up for renewal in May 2025, Sterling's semiconductor margins compress further unless clients agree to change orders.
Operators should watch three events. First, whether Intel's $3.5 billion military chip facility in Ohio—currently paused pending Defense Department contract finalization—resumes by June 2025; Sterling holds the site work contract. Second, the April Treasury disbursement cycle, when $4.1 billion in conditional CHIPS awards either convert to binding agreements or get pulled for budget reallocation. Third, whether Micron's $15 billion New York expansion, announced in October 2024, begins site preparation in Q3 2025 as planned; Sterling is shortlisted for the electrical infrastructure package.
Sterling's semiconductor exposure now exceeds its data center exposure for the first time since 2019. The company's next backlog disclosure, due March 28th, will show whether that mix shift accelerates or whether the CHIPS pipeline is already stalling at $890 million of federally dependent work.
Branded by POPS4 · proof in 60 seconds
For the principal
Sterling's semiconductor pivot carries $890M in federal execution risk; consider whether infrastructure allocation should favor pure-play data center builders through mid-2025.
For the operator
Track April CHIPS disbursements and Intel Ohio restart; Sterling's margin compression risk materializes if 8.2% union wage increase lands without contract pass-throughs in May.
For the house
Huang Goodman steel-tier watch only; semiconductor infrastructure play too early-stage for named allocation until backlog mix stabilizes and federal disbursement uncertainty clears.
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