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Secondaries desks are rotating from AI foundation models to Stripe, Databricks, Anduril—late-stage names with **$100B+** combined valuations and near-term IPO paths.
$100 billion
and represent a shift in secondary market focus from…
$37 billion
in disclosed transaction volume for 2024
$65 billion
valuation in March 2023
$43 billion
in September 2023
PitchBook published its venture secondaries forecast this week naming Stripe, Databricks, and Anduril as the next tier of major liquidity events for institutional buyers. The three companies carry combined private valuations exceeding $100 billion and represent a shift in secondary market focus from AI foundation models toward fintech infrastructure, data platforms, and defense technology. OpenAI and Anthropic have dominated secondary volume through 2024, while SpaceX reduced secondary availability until recent quarters.
The forecast arrives as venture secondaries hit $37 billion in disclosed transaction volume for 2024, up 18% year-over-year, according to PitchBook's own data. Stripe last raised at a $65 billion valuation in March 2023, Databricks closed a round at $43 billion in September 2023, and Anduril raised at $14 billion in December 2024. All three have delayed public offerings beyond original internal timelines, creating accumulating demand from early employees and seed funds seeking liquidity without a clear exit window. Secondary buyers are pricing Stripe shares at 12-16% discounts to last primary round, Databricks at 8-12%, and Anduril closer to par, reflecting defense budget tailwinds and Anduril's shorter cap table tenure.
This matters because secondaries pricing telegraphs where institutional capital believes the next $50 billion+ IPOs will occur, and none of these three fit the 2021 growth-at-any-cost template. Stripe's payment volume crossed $1 trillion annually in 2023, with EBITDA margins estimated near 22% by third-party analysts—a profile closer to Visa than Robinhood. Databricks reported $2.4 billion in ARR as of mid-2024 and is adding enterprise customers at a pace that suggests $4 billion run rate by IPO, likely in late 2025 or H1 2026. Anduril's defense contracts, including the $1 billion Lattice platform deal with the U.S. Marine Corps, position it as the first venture-backed defense prime since Palantir. The secondary market is pricing in a world where these companies IPO into a 15-20x revenue multiple environment, not the 30-50x froth of 2021, which means current secondary buyers are underwriting 2.2-3.8x returns on a three-year hold—compressed but still attractive against public market volatility.
Operators and allocators should watch for three catalysts in the next six to nine months: Stripe's expected direct listing preparation, which sources indicate could begin in Q3 2025; Databricks' S-1 filing, likely in Q4 2025 based on revenue milestones; and Anduril's next funding round, which could reset valuation closer to $20 billion and compress secondary discounts further. Secondary volume in all three names is expected to accelerate into Q2 2025 as early shareholders anticipate narrowing windows before lockup restrictions tighten pre-IPO.
The forecast is less a prediction than a reallocation memo. The venture secondaries market is moving capital from overhyped AI plays into companies with revenue, margins, and identifiable public market comps—names that will print returns even if the IPO window opens at half the width anyone hoped for.
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For the principal
If your office holds early-stage positions in any of these three, initiate secondary sale conversations now before discount windows narrow in Q2.
For the operator
Track secondary transaction volume in these names monthly; pricing inflection points will signal IPO filing timelines 60-90 days in advance.
For the house
Huang Goodman is increasing allocation to secondary opportunities in Databricks and Anduril, targeting 8-12% discount entry points through Q1 2025.
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