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TKO$TKO · filed: saw revenue fall 3.1% in FY2025 to $4.7BSound shipTrillion Score 582Fall Risk MediumNext year $3.5B–$10.0B sealedCheck ▾Close ▴
What TKO filed
Saw revenue fall 3.1% in FY2025 to $4.7 billion, operating margin 17.6% against a 1.6% median for amusement & recreation services, equity 24.1% of assets. Every figure links to the filing it came from on TKO’s card. Sound ship: one warning sign. Trillion Score 582, #2 of 12 in its field; Fall Risk Medium (how it is measured).
What the house said in advance
Revenue for the fiscal year after 2025-12-31 between $3.5B and $10.0B, an 80% range sealed on 26 Sept 2026 · receipt #076422 · graded in public by the revenue in TKO’s next annual report.
Figures as filed with the SEC. Ranges, scores and boats are statistical descriptions of past filings, not ratings or recommendations. Reporting, not advice.
In plain words
TKO's **$150M** Q2 dividend confirms sustained free cash flow generation, with allocators watching leverage ratios and UFC pay-per-view momentum through year-end.
$150 million
dividend for Q2 2026
85%
on adjusted EBITDA
$600 million
assuming consistent quarterly cadence through fiscal year-end
$1.4 billion
over ten years
TKO Group Holdings approved a $150 million dividend for Q2 2026, payable to Class A common shareholders. The distribution represents one of the larger single-quarter capital returns since the 2023 merger that combined World Wrestling Entertainment and Ultimate Fighting Championship under a single publicly traded entity backed by Endeavor Group Holdings.
The payout comes eighteen months after TKO restructured its capital allocation framework to prioritize quarterly distributions over buyback programs. Management commentary during the Q1 2026 earnings call indicated free cash flow conversion north of 85% on adjusted EBITDA, driven by live-event gate receipts, media rights renewals, and licensing income from WWE's Saudi Arabia contract extension. The Q2 dividend implies an annualized distribution rate approaching $600 million, assuming consistent quarterly cadence through fiscal year-end.
For family offices and direct equity allocators, the signal is operational stability in a sector where live-event revenue remains immune to streaming margin compression. TKO's dual-brand structure—WWE's scripted entertainment and UFC's combat sports—creates diversified audience exposure with minimal overlap. The Saudi Arabia agreement, worth roughly $1.4 billion over ten years, provides a revenue floor that insulates the dividend from domestic advertising cyclicality. Media rights agreements with NBCUniversal and ESPN, set for renegotiation in 2027 and 2028 respectively, represent the next inflection points for shareholder yield expansion.
Allocators should monitor two specific developments. First, TKO's leverage ratio, which stood at 2.8x net debt to EBITDA as of Q1 2026. Sustained dividends at this scale require the ratio to remain below 3.0x to preserve investment-grade optionality. Second, Endeavor's ownership stake, currently 51%, and any indication of secondary block sales, which would pressure the float and potentially compress the dividend yield if management redirects cash to equity buybacks instead. UFC pay-per-view buy rates for the back half of 2026, particularly the November Las Vegas card, will indicate whether live-event momentum justifies the elevated payout ratio.
The Q2 distribution settles in mid-July 2026, with an ex-dividend date likely in late June. TKO's next earnings call, scheduled for early August, will clarify whether the $150 million quarterly run rate holds or adjusts based on H2 media contract performance.
Branded by POPS4 · proof in 60 seconds
For the principal
Watch Endeavor's stake disposition; any block sale signals liquidity preference over long-term compounding in the SFO context.
For the operator
Track TKO's Q3 guidance on August call for dividend sustainability; leverage creep above 3.0x would force payout recalibration.
For the house
Maintain overweight in named accounts with yield mandates; model $600M annualized distribution as baseline through fiscal 2026.
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