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Vail Resorts$MTN · filed: saw revenue fall 4.3% in FY2026 to $2.8BNew shipTrillion Score 505Fall Risk MediumNext year $2.3B–$3.2B sealedCheck ▾Close ▴
What Vail Resorts filed
Saw revenue fall 4.3% in FY2026 to $2.8 billion, operating margin 14.8% against a 7.0% median for miscellaneous amusement & recreation, equity 4.4% of assets. Every figure links to the filing it came from on Vail Resorts’s card. New ship: no warning signs. Trillion Score 505, #8 of 17 in its field; Fall Risk Medium (how it is measured).
What the house said in advance
Revenue for the fiscal year after 2026-07-31 between $2.3B and $3.2B, an 80% range sealed on 28 Sept 2026 · receipt #a40dab · graded in public by the revenue in Vail Resorts’s next annual report.
Figures as filed with the SEC. Ranges, scores and boats are statistical descriptions of past filings, not ratings or recommendations. Reporting, not advice.
In plain words
First activist targeting of Vail since going public; stock priced in partial breakup, full sale mechanics now live issue.
18-property
North American mountain portfolio
$191.45
on Wednesday
22-month
slide during which MTN lost
41%
from its 2021 peak of
Oasis Capital Management disclosed a position in Vail Resorts and signaled intent to pursue a proxy contest targeting board composition and a potential sale of the company's 18-property North American mountain portfolio. Shares closed up $23.80 to $191.45 on Wednesday, the largest single-day gain since March 2019. The move ends a 22-month slide during which MTN lost 41% from its 2021 peak of $376, underperforming the S&P 500 by 67 percentage points over that span.
Oasis has not filed a 13D, meaning its stake remains under 5% or the filing is pending SEC review. The firm specializes in leisure and hospitality restructuring — it previously forced board changes at SeaWorld Entertainment and ClubCorp Holdings before both were taken private. Vail Resorts operates 42 resorts globally, including Whistler Blackcomb, Park City, and Heavenly, with $2.83B in trailing revenue. The company's Epic Pass business contributed $987M in advance season-pass sales last fiscal year, a high-margin recurring revenue stream that private equity groups have studied since 2020. KKR and Apollo both ran preliminary diligence in late 2022 but walked over valuation gaps and regulatory entanglement with Forest Service land-use permits.
The timing reflects two structural pressures. First, Vail's same-store skier visits dropped 6.2% year-over-year through the 2023-24 season, driven by weak early-season snowfall in the Rockies and middle-income pass-holder churn. Second, the company carries $2.91B in net debt, up $840M since 2019, mostly from acquisition financing for Peak Resorts and Stevens Pass. Interest expense hit $141M last fiscal year, eating 38% of EBITDA. Oasis likely sees a breakup scenario where individual mountains sell to regional operators or family offices at higher multiples than the consolidated enterprise trades today — Aspen Skiing Company, still private, last changed hands at 14x EBITDA in 2010, well above Vail's current 8.7x.
Allocators should track three catalysts over the next 90 days. Oasis will either file a 13D disclosing exact share count and board nominees or quietly accumulate to just under 10% before announcing. Vail's annual meeting is typically held in mid-December, meaning any proxy materials would need to be filed by late October under SEC Rule 14a-8. The company's Q4 earnings call, scheduled for late September, will likely address capital allocation and whether management pre-empts activist pressure with a voluntary asset review or special dividend.
The market already priced $310M in equity value recovery. If Oasis pushes through a sale, the floor is likely $215-$235 per share based on sum-of-parts analysis using comparable resort transactions. The ceiling depends on whether a buyer values the Epic Pass database — 2.3M active accounts — as a subscription moat or a commoditized customer list.
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For the principal
Oasis positioning suggests $2.1B mountain portfolio sale within 12 months — watch for competing bids from KKR or family-office consortiums.
For the operator
MTN now a special-situations equity trade; Oasis likely holds 3-7%, proxy filing due by late October if they force December vote.
For the house
Huang Goodman long 18,000 shares MTN at $187.20 average — positioned for activist premium, exit on confirmed sale process or $220 breach.
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