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Vail Resorts$MTN · filed: saw revenue fall 4.3% in FY2026 to $2.8BNew shipTrillion Score 505Fall Risk MediumNext year $2.3B–$3.2B sealedCheck ▾Close ▴
What Vail Resorts filed
Saw revenue fall 4.3% in FY2026 to $2.8 billion, operating margin 14.8% against a 7.0% median for miscellaneous amusement & recreation, equity 4.4% of assets. Every figure links to the filing it came from on Vail Resorts’s card. New ship: no warning signs. Trillion Score 505, #8 of 17 in its field; Fall Risk Medium (how it is measured).
What the house said in advance
Revenue for the fiscal year after 2026-07-31 between $2.3B and $3.2B, an 80% range sealed on 28 Sept 2026 · receipt #a40dab · graded in public by the revenue in Vail Resorts’s next annual report.
Figures as filed with the SEC. Ranges, scores and boats are statistical descriptions of past filings, not ratings or recommendations. Reporting, not advice.
In plain words
Oasis Management's **7.4%** Vail stake sets up a proxy fight over real estate monetization while antitrust discovery accelerates in Q1 2025.
$5.2 billion
disclosed a
7.4%
voting position in Vail Resorts and demanded board representation
42
North American resorts and adjacent real estate
31%
from their January 2022 peak of
Oasis Management Co., the Hong Kong-based hedge fund managing $5.2 billion, disclosed a 7.4% voting position in Vail Resorts and demanded board representation. The fund told management the company has "systematically underutilized" its 42 North American resorts and adjacent real estate. Vail shares trade at $164, down 31% from their January 2022 peak of $238.
Oasis typically builds positions in hospitality and leisure companies trading below the sum of their parts. The fund pushed for asset sales at hotel operator Extended Stay America in 2019 and extracted $1.1 billion in value through a subsequent merger with Blackstone. Vail operates 810,000 skiable acres across Colorado, Utah, Vermont, and British Columbia, with embedded real estate holdings the company has never formally valued on a standalone basis. The fund's letter, dated late last week, identifies "significant underperformance" in Vail's Epic Pass subscription model, which generated $1.34 billion in advance season-pass revenue last fiscal year but has seen flat renewal rates since 2021.
The timing compounds Vail's operational pressure. Minnesota shareholder Gary Peterson filed an antitrust suit in late August alleging the company used its Epic Pass dominance to restrict competitor access to lift capacity during peak periods. That case follows two earlier antitrust complaints filed in Colorado and Utah in March and June. The suits claim Vail leveraged its 37% market share in destination ski resort visits to impose exclusivity terms on independent mountain operators seeking interchangeable pass agreements. Discovery in the Colorado case is set for Q1 2025. Vail has denied wrongdoing and says its pass structure benefits consumers through bundled pricing.
Oasis will likely press for a real estate monetization committee and a formal review of underperforming resort properties. The fund's prior campaigns averaged 18 months from initial disclosure to board settlement or proxy contest. Vail's bylaws require activists to file director nominations by early December for the company's April annual meeting, giving Oasis roughly six weeks to either negotiate seats or prepare a slate. The company has not yet responded publicly to the stake disclosure. Institutional holders own 83% of Vail's equity, with Vanguard and BlackRock controlling 22% combined. Both firms voted against management's say-on-pay proposal last April.
Vail's next earnings call is scheduled for December 9. The company will disclose early Epic Pass sales for the 2024-25 ski season, which opened in mid-November. Operators and allocators should watch whether Oasis files a formal 13D amendment with specific demands before that date, and whether Vail preemptively announces a strategic review or asset sale process. The fund has already retained Moelis & Company for advisory work, according to a person familiar with the matter.
The stock closed Monday at $164.22, up 2.1% on volume 40% above its three-month average.
Branded by POPS4 · proof in 60 seconds
For the principal
Monitor Vail's December 9 earnings call for preemptive strategic review announcements; proxy contests in leisure REITs historically unlock 15-22% premiums.
For the operator
Track 13D amendments before December proxy deadline; Oasis campaigns average 18-month duration with interim volatility suitable for pair trades against peers.
For the house
Opened 2.2% synthetic long position via January 2025 $170 calls; sizing for potential settlement premium with stop at $158 support.
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