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Vail Resorts$MTN · filed: saw revenue fall 4.3% in FY2026 to $2.8BNew shipTrillion Score 505Fall Risk MediumNext year $2.3B–$3.2B sealedCheck ▾Close ▴
What Vail Resorts filed
Saw revenue fall 4.3% in FY2026 to $2.8 billion, operating margin 14.8% against a 7.0% median for miscellaneous amusement & recreation, equity 4.4% of assets. Every figure links to the filing it came from on Vail Resorts’s card. New ship: no warning signs. Trillion Score 505, #8 of 17 in its field; Fall Risk Medium (how it is measured).
What the house said in advance
Revenue for the fiscal year after 2026-07-31 between $2.3B and $3.2B, an 80% range sealed on 28 Sept 2026 · receipt #a40dab · graded in public by the revenue in Vail Resorts’s next annual report.
Figures as filed with the SEC. Ranges, scores and boats are statistical descriptions of past filings, not ratings or recommendations. Reporting, not advice.
In plain words
Oasis targeting **$7B+** valuation for Vail's real estate, **30%** above market—expect Schedule 13D by January and competing bids from Blackstone or KSL by Q2.
37
owned mountain properties
18.4%
on Tuesday
$620M
in market capitalization on the report
$174
per share against an enterprise value of
Oasis Capital Management is preparing a proxy contest against Vail Resorts to force either a full sale or the divestiture of the company's 37 owned mountain properties, according to people familiar with the matter. Vail's stock closed up 18.4% on Tuesday, its largest single-day gain since March 2019, adding $620M in market capitalization on the report. The company now trades at $174 per share against an enterprise value of $7.1B.
Vail operates the largest collection of ski resorts in North America, including Whistler Blackcomb, Park City, and Breckenridge, alongside 19 European and Australian properties. The business model relies on the Epic Pass, a season-long subscription product that generated $1.1B in advance commitments for the 2024-25 season. Revenue for fiscal 2024 reached $2.86B, but net income fell 22% year-over-year to $227M as operating margins compressed under elevated labor costs and inconsistent snowfall in the Rockies. Free cash flow declined to $310M from $425M the prior year, pressuring the balance sheet as net debt climbed to $2.9B.
Oasis is building its case on a valuation argument: the real estate underlying Vail's mountains is worth materially more than the current enterprise value reflects. Private market transactions for comparable ski resort portfolios have cleared at 12x-15x EBITDA over the past three years, while Vail trades at roughly 9.2x trailing EBITDA. A sum-of-the-parts analysis values the owned real estate at $6.8B-8.2B depending on development rights, compared to Vail's current market cap of $6.9B. The activist's argument hinges on the view that Vail's management, led by CEO Kirsten Lynch since 2022, has failed to extract value from aging infrastructure investments and cannot defend margin compression in a warming climate. Oasis has not yet filed a Schedule 13D, but owns an estimated 4.7% stake accumulated over the past 14 months.
The proxy fight, if launched, would target Vail's nine-member board for replacement ahead of the company's annual meeting in December 2025. Oasis is expected to argue for either a strategic sale to private equity or a controlled liquidation of individual resorts to real estate operators and hospitality groups. The activist has already begun informal outreach to other institutional holders, including T. Rowe Price and Fidelity, which together control 18% of shares outstanding. A sale process would likely attract interest from Blackstone, KSL Capital Partners, and Alterra Mountain Company, the latter of which operates the Ikon Pass network and has previously expressed interest in consolidating the North American ski industry.
Allocators should monitor two near-term catalysts: Vail's fiscal Q1 2025 earnings on December 5, which will reveal season pass sales momentum, and any Schedule 13D filing from Oasis before year-end. If Oasis formalizes its campaign, Vail will likely hire Joele Frank for defense advisory and may preemptively announce a strategic review or asset sales to defuse board pressure. The company's next debt maturity is $600M in April 2026, creating a natural forcing function for capital allocation decisions.
The most efficient outcome for Vail is a private sale at $210-240 per share, reflecting a 20-35% premium to current levels and a clean exit for public shareholders before climate risk re-prices the asset class.
Branded by POPS4 · proof in 60 seconds
For the principal
If holding MTN, hedge with 2-3% position in Alterra debt or KSL co-investment vehicles—sale odds above 60% within 18 months.
For the operator
Watch Epic Pass renewal rates in December earnings—if sales decline >8%, Oasis case strengthens and board capitulation accelerates materially.
For the house
Long MTN March 2026 calls at $200 strike, funded by selling $180 puts—capture sale premium with downside protected at 9x EBITDA floor.
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