Kylian Mbappé's Nike contract expires in June 2025, and On Running has positioned itself as a credible alternative during the negotiating window that opened this quarter. The Swiss performance brand, valued at $6.8 billion at its September IPO, has no football boot line but maintains cash reserves and technical partnerships that make athlete expansion plausible.
Nike signed Mbappé to a ten-year, $22 million annually deal in 2019, structured with escalators tied to Ballon d'Or placement and Champions League titles. That contract included exclusivity across boots, training apparel, and off-pitch lifestyle wear. Mbappé's camp did not trigger the standard eighteen-month extension window in December 2023, which typically signals either significant term revisions or a competitive bidding process. On Running's name surfaced in trade press last week after the brand's VP of athlete partnerships, Ilona Chavaillaz, was photographed at Real Madrid's February 8 match against Atlético Madrid, seated four rows behind Mbappé's mother and agent.
On Running's entry into football follows a pattern established in tennis and triathlon: sign marquee athletes, co-develop signature product, leverage halo effect across recreational runners who comprise 89% of brand revenue. The company spent $47 million on athlete sponsorships in 2024, up from $31 million in 2023, but none in team sports requiring cleated footwear. Developing a football boot from scratch requires eighteen months minimum and partnerships with clubs for testing protocols. On Running could instead license technology to an existing boot manufacturer—Mizuno, Lotto, Hummel—and white-label a signature Mbappé line while maintaining brand control, a structure used by Puma with Neymar from 2020-2022.
Nike's leverage remains its Mercurial Vapor franchise, worn by Mbappé since age fourteen, and its ability to structure deals around Real Madrid's kit partnership, worth $120 million annually through 2028. Adidas, Puma, and New Balance have all made inquiries through intermediaries, according to two people familiar with the process, but none have formal term sheets circulating. The floor for a new Mbappé deal sits near $30 million annually, based on Cristiano Ronaldo's lifetime Nike structure and Lionel Messi's $25 million Adidas base before his Saudi move.
What matters for sponsors and team operators: Mbappé's next boot deal sets the floor for Haaland's Puma renewal in 2026 and Bellingham's Adidas renegotiation in 2027. If On Running or another non-Big Three brand wins, it validates entry strategies for cash-rich lifestyle brands eyeing football's $8.2 billion annual footwear market. For Real Madrid, the calculus is simpler—Mbappé wearing a non-Nike boot creates kit conflicts in marketing assets and risks reducing Nike's willingness to increase its kit deal at the 2026 opt-out window.
Watch for On Running's Q1 2025 earnings call in May, where CFO Martin Hoffmann typically previews athlete investment roadmaps. Mbappé's decision timeline runs through the summer transfer window close in September, when boot brands finalize their 2026 product calendars. If On Running moves forward, expect a technical partnership announcement with a boot manufacturer by June, followed by athlete reveal in August ahead of the new season.
Mbappé's camp has not commented on the Nike renewal timeline. On Running declined to discuss athlete negotiations. Nike's standard practice is not to confirm deal status until contracts are finalized and announced jointly with the athlete.
The takeaway
On Running's Mbappé approach tests whether non-endemic brands can credibly enter football footwear via athlete deals rather than organic boot development.
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