Major League Baseball's union and ownership began collective bargaining talks Tuesday, six-and-a-half months before the current agreement expires December 11. The early start signals neither goodwill nor efficiency—both sides want the expansion question settled before franchise valuations climb further.
The timing matters because Commissioner Rob Manfred has publicly targeted two expansion franchises by 2028, with Nashville and Salt Lake City as consensus front-runners. At current multiples, each expansion fee would price near $2.5 billion. The players' association wants their percentage of expansion fees locked into the next CBA before those checks clear. Under the expiring deal, players received roughly 20 percent of expansion revenue when Miami and Tampa joined in 1998 at $130 million per team. Ownership has since treated expansion fees as capital contributions exempt from revenue-sharing formulas.
The union's early positioning reflects a structural shift in franchise economics. MLB team valuations have increased 340 percent since 2012, driven by regional sports network deals that have since cratered and equity stakes from private capital that now dominate ownership groups. The Mets sold for $2.4 billion in 2020; the Nationals are fielding offers near $2.5 billion today despite a last-place roster. Expansion fees at that level would generate $5 billion in new capital split among 30 current owners—roughly $167 million per team before the players' cut.
Ownership's calculus is simpler: delay. The longer expansion pricing waits, the higher the number climbs, and the less appealing a 20 percent player share becomes. Manfred has repeatedly said expansion talks cannot proceed until the Oakland Athletics' Las Vegas ballpark financing closes and the Tampa Bay Rays' stadium situation resolves. Both timelines have slipped past 2025. That creates a negotiating window where the union can demand expansion-fee language in exchange for concessions on salary arbitration thresholds or playoff roster rules.
Two contract extensions signed in the past week illustrate why both sides are moving now. Milwaukee locked outfielder Luis Lara—who has played zero MLB games—into an eight-year deal through 2032. San Diego extended Cooper Pratt before his Triple-A call-up. Both contracts buy out arbitration years at rates below market, a strategy ownership has deployed aggressively since the last CBA added a pre-arbitration bonus pool that failed to move aggregate player salaries. The union wants the next agreement to narrow those windows. Ownership wants flexibility preserved before expansion dilutes the talent pool by 50 players.
The 2022 lockout lasted 99 days and cost each team roughly $20 million in lost gate revenue. Neither side has appetite for a repeat, but the expansion issue is binary: either the fee-sharing percentage gets codified now, or ownership argues expansion is a capital event outside the bargaining framework. The union's internal modeling assumes two franchises at $2.5 billion each, with player share at 20 percent, generates $1 billion—enough to fund a $33 million annual increase to the competitive balance tax threshold for three years.
Meanwhile, Nashville's ownership group has already secured $2.1 billion in equity commitments, per Davidson County filings. Salt Lake City's group includes Ryan Smith, who paid $1.66 billion for the Utah Jazz in 2020 and has since watched that franchise appraise at $2.4 billion. Both cities have offered public stadium financing packages that exceed $1 billion in present value. The franchises will sell. The question is whether players get a contractual percentage before the wire transfers settle.
The next CBA negotiation checkpoint is mid-August, when ownership typically presents its first economic proposal. Until then, both sides are modeling expansion scenarios in spreadsheets. The union's position is that $5 billion in new franchise fees is effectively deferred player salary from expanded playoff inventory and additional regular-season games. Ownership's position is that expansion is a one-time capital raise that funds stadium debt, not payroll.
The December 11 expiration means a deal must close by late November to avoid disrupting offseason free agency. That gives negotiators five months after the August proposal to settle roughly 40 core issues, including international draft implementation, minor-league salary floors, and the pre-arbitration bonus pool structure. Expansion fee allocation will be the highest-dollar item on either side's list. Nashville's stadium ground-breaking is scheduled for April 2026, contingent on league approval that requires a ratified CBA.
One veteran agent noted Tuesday that his clients are already asking whether to front-load contract negotiations into July, before a potential December freeze. That behavior—players treating November 2025 as a de facto transaction deadline—suggests both sides expect this round to run past the expiration date. The 2022 lockout ended February 10, canceling 91 regular-season games before the season's late start April 7. Spring training facilities in Arizona and Florida are already blocking February 2026 dates for major-league clubs, a scheduling quirk that assumes normalcy but accommodates delay.
Expansion has been discussed publicly since 2018. It has never been negotiated in collective bargaining because no prior CBA expired while franchise fees were projected above $2 billion. That number changes everything. The union's early start this week is a signal: we know what you're selling, and we want it in writing.
The takeaway
Players bargaining early to lock expansion-fee percentage before Nashville and Salt Lake franchises price at **$2.5B** each—union wants **$1B** player share codified.
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