The Major League Baseball Players Association and the league office are back in regular bargaining sessions seventeen months before the current collective bargaining agreement expires in December 2026, with both sides citing philosophical alignment on competitive balance but no movement yet on the two items that fund everything else: postseason television revenue distribution and expansion franchise fee carve-outs. The league generated $13.7 billion in total revenue last season. How much of the next decade's growth the players capture depends on whether commissioners' office negotiators can sell club owners on locking in labor peace before the 2027 regular season, when three national broadcast deals renew and two expansion markets are expected to be announced.
Bargaining resumed in November after a four-month quiet period. Neither side has declared an impasse. The Players Association is not threatening a spring training boycott. The league is not floating salary cap trial balloons in friendly columns. That calm is deliberate. Both sides watched the 2021-2022 lockout cost the industry an estimated $640 million in gate, sponsorship, and local media revenue when Opening Day was delayed and the first week of games canceled. Owners who borrowed against future media rights to buy franchises at $2.2 billion average valuations do not want another credit event. Union leadership, which saw player salaries climb 11.6% in the first year of the current CBA, does not want to explain to membership why they are picketing in February when the checks cleared in October.
The sticking points are structural, not emotional. Expansion is the simplest: when MLB adds teams in Nashville and Salt Lake City or Charlotte, the thirty existing clubs will split roughly $2.4 billion in expansion fees, assuming each new franchise sells for the $1.2 billion floor that early bidding suggests. The Players Association wants a percentage of that pot directed into player benefits or competitive balance mechanisms. The league considers expansion fees a one-time capital event outside the revenue-sharing formula. The broader issue is postseason money. MLB's current playoff format generated $1.9 billion in media rights last season, a 48% increase over the prior contract. Players receive a fixed pool from gate receipts but no direct cut of the national television money. The union is not asking for a percentage of every broadcast deal, but it wants postseason TV revenue treated as baseball-related income in the luxury tax calculation, which would raise team payrolls by roughly $140 million across the league.
What matters for team operators: if this deal closes early, it signals ownership confidence in the next media cycle and creates a two-year window of labor certainty for franchise sales and sponsorship renewals. If it drags into summer 2026, expect clubs to slow offseason spending and delay stadium renovations until the risk clears. For allocators pricing baseball assets, an early CBA handshake would likely push franchise valuations above $2.5 billion for mid-market clubs, because buyers can underwrite ten years of salary growth without a lockout asterisk in the model. The absence of that handshake keeps a 15% liquidity discount on any transaction that closes before December 2026.
Watch for two milestones in the next four months: whether the league makes a formal proposal on postseason revenue sharing by the February owners' meetings in Phoenix, and whether the Players Association files an unfair labor practice claim if clubs begin holding back on long-term contract extensions this winter. The union has not threatened it, but the legal mechanism exists, and filing would signal bargaining has moved from philosophical to procedural.
Expansion franchise announcements were originally expected in early 2025. They have not happened, and the delay is not about stadium site control. It is about making sure the expansion fee distribution is locked into the CBA before the league takes bids, so ownership does not have to negotiate the same dollar twice.
The takeaway
MLB and players are bargaining calmly now, but postseason TV revenue and expansion fee splits could still force a standoff by mid-2026.
Editorial & Disclosure Notice: This article was written with artificial intelligence from public sources and is published without individual human review. Artificial intelligence and other digital tools are also used for research, analysis, editing, formatting, and production. Errors, omissions, outdated information, or inaccuracies may occur. References to companies, brands, products, services, organizations, or individuals are for informational and editorial purposes and do not imply endorsement, sponsorship, affiliation, partnership, or approval unless expressly stated. All trademarks and other intellectual property remain the property of their respective owners. Opinions, analysis, estimates, and commentary are informational only and should not be construed as financial, investment, legal, tax, medical, procurement, or other professional advice. Information may be corrected, clarified, or updated after publication. Corrections or removal requests: jenny@pops4.com.
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