Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association began collective bargaining negotiations Tuesday, 195 days before the current agreement expires on December 1, 2025. The last time talks started this early was 2016, when neither side wanted a repeat of the 1994 strike. This time, the urgency comes from a different place: expansion is imminent, and the players want their cut codified before Nashville and Salt Lake City write $2.4 billion in checks.
The current CBA, signed in March 2022 after a 99-day lockout, runs through the end of this season. League revenue hit $11.58 billion in 2024, up 8.2% from 2023, driven by streaming deals with Apple and YouTube and sold-out ballparks in mid-market cities. Player salaries claimed 57.8% of that pot, the highest share since 2017. The union wants 60% locked in writing. Owners want flexibility to redirect expansion fees—estimated at $2.4 billion total for two franchises—toward stadium upgrades and international academies, not payroll escalators.
Three issues will consume the winter: revenue sharing mechanics, minor-league wage floors, and the international draft. The union is pushing for a $35,000 minimum salary for minor leaguers, up from the current $19,800 for rookie-ball players. Owners counter that the new minor-league housing stipends—$57 million across 30 clubs in 2024—already address quality-of-life concerns. The international draft, which the union accepted in 2022 as a trial, is now a sticking point. The Dominican Republic academies, which cost owners $18 million per team annually, want certainty. The union wants opt-outs tied to draft-pick compensation formulas.
Expansion is the subtext beneath every agenda item. Commissioner Rob Manfred has said publicly that Nashville and Salt Lake City are the frontrunners, with $1.2 billion franchise fees expected per team. The Players Association wants 12% of those fees directed into a new revenue pool, distributed as performance bonuses for pre-arbitration players. Owners have offered 6%, structured as a one-time pool in 2028, after the next CBA is signed. The gap is $144 million—enough to fund an entire midmarket payroll.
The early start also reflects locker-room pressure. Three dozen players are extension-eligible this winter, including Milwaukee outfield prospect Luis Lara, who signed a $35 million deal last week, and Cincinnati's Cooper Pratt, whose $89 million extension drew scrutiny for its deferred structure. Both deals hinge on the next CBA's luxury-tax thresholds and arbitration timelines. Agents are telling clients to wait. Owners are telling GMs to lock in talent before the thresholds rise. The result: a quiet trade deadline and a crowded negotiating table.
What to watch: The union's first counterproposal, expected in mid-July, will clarify whether Tony Clark is negotiating from 2022's playbook—public pressure, slow progress, December crisis—or something faster. Owners will present their economic opener in late August, once second-half attendance data is final. The luxury-tax threshold, currently $237 million, is the tripwire. The union wants it at $260 million by 2026. Owners are offering $245 million. Every $5 million in wiggle room is two mid-tier relievers or one backend starter. Expansion votes are penciled in for November's owners meetings in Phoenix, but the CBA has to close first.
The $2.4 billion in expansion fees is already spent, at least on paper. Nashville's ownership group has $1.6 billion in committed infrastructure—stadium, mixed-use development, transit upgrades. Salt Lake City has $1.1 billion. Neither city is writing checks until the CBA guarantees labor peace through 2030.
The takeaway
MLB's early CBA start is cover for expansion economics—**$2.4B** in franchise fees are leverage, not goodwill.
mlbcbaexpansionlaborfranchise-feesrevenue-sharing
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