Mark Alnutt runs an athletics department that generated $54.3M in revenue last fiscal year and now faces a structural problem with no obvious solution. The University at Buffalo's AD told local business press this week that NIL costs and the incoming House settlement revenue-sharing model have fundamentally altered his ability to recruit and retain football players. The comment arrives six months before Power Four schools begin distributing $20.5M-to-$22M per year directly to athletes, a mechanism Buffalo cannot match.
The House settlement, preliminary approval expected December 2024, permits schools to share up to 22% of average power-conference media revenue with athletes. That cap translates to approximately $22M annually for well-resourced programs. Mid-American Conference schools like Buffalo operate on different math: total athletics revenue often sits below what a single Big Ten program will soon distribute to its roster. Alnutt's public acknowledgment signals what multiple Group of Five ADs have said privately since April—roster stability is no longer a function of development pipelines or coaching relationships. It is a price war they cannot win.
The recruitment mechanism has already shifted. Florida State quarterback DJ Uiagalelei transferred to Florida State in December 2023 for a reported $1.5M NIL package. Ohio State's collective spent an estimated $20M on its 2024 roster before revenue-sharing even began. Buffalo's entire football budget runs approximately $6.8M. When revenue-sharing activates, the gap becomes structural rather than competitive. A starting quarterback at Oregon will receive a share of $22M distributed across roughly 125 scholarship athletes, plus separate NIL deals. A starting quarterback at Buffalo will receive a scholarship, minimal direct payment if any, and access to a local NIL market valued in five figures.
Alnutt did not specify departure numbers, but the portal tells the story. Buffalo lost 11 scholarship players to FBS programs during the 2024 cycle, up from 6 the prior year. The 2025 cycle opens in December, and multiple Group of Five coaches have told agents to expect accelerated movement once revenue-sharing terms finalize. The structural issue is not talent development—Buffalo has sent 14 players to NFL camps since 2019—but talent retention. A linebacker who starts as a freshman, develops into an All-MAC performer by his junior year, and enters the portal in December now has 30 Power Four programs offering not just a bigger stage but a direct payment that exceeds his current school's entire NIL capacity.
The broader financing question remains unresolved. Power Four schools will fund revenue-sharing primarily through existing media contracts: the Big Ten's $7.5B deal with Fox, CBS, and NBC runs through 2030 and provides per-school annual payouts near $60M-to-$80M depending on performance tiers. The MAC's current media deal with ESPN pays approximately $900K per school annually. Even if Buffalo reallocated its entire conference distribution to revenue-sharing, it would cover roughly 4% of what Michigan will pay its roster. Title IX compliance adds another layer—schools must distribute revenue-sharing payments equitably across men's and women's sports, meaning football-specific funds require proportional investment in women's basketball, volleyball, and Olympic sports.
NIL collectives have not solved the equity problem. On3's NIL valuation database estimates the average Power Four collective raised $12M-to-$18M in 2024. Mid-major collectives rarely exceed $2M. Buffalo's local corporate base includes M&T Bank and Delaware North, both of which have supported athletics, but neither operates at the scale of Oregon's Phil Knight or Texas A&M's oil-and-gas donor network. The result is a bifurcated market: schools with deep donor bases and large media contracts can pay players directly and supplement with NIL, while schools like Buffalo must choose between funding facilities, coaching salaries, or per-athlete payments that remain a fraction of Power Four rates.
Alnutt's statement also arrives the same week an illegal targeting hit on Oregon quarterback Dante Moore renewed scrutiny of NCAA enforcement inconsistency. Moore was struck in the head and neck while sliding during a conference game, and the non-call drew immediate criticism from coaches and television analysts. The juxtaposition is not coincidental—schools now paying athletes $22M annually will demand stricter officiating, faster medical protocols, and liability structures that mid-majors cannot afford to match. Revenue-sharing does not only reshape rosters; it reshapes risk management, insurance costs, and legal exposure.
The December early signing period will provide the first hard data on transfer acceleration. Multiple Group of Five ADs have privately indicated they expect 15-to-20 scholarship departures per program once Power Four revenue-sharing terms become public. Agents are already advising draft-eligible juniors to enter the portal in December rather than wait for the spring window, anticipating that revenue-sharing slots will fill quickly. Buffalo's roster currently includes 17 juniors and seniors who started games in 2024. If even half enter the portal, Alnutt will need to replace not only talent but also institutional knowledge in a market where his price ceiling is another program's floor.
The House settlement hearing is scheduled for April 2025 in the Northern District of California. If Judge Claudia Wilken grants final approval, revenue-sharing begins July 1, 2025. Buffalo opens its 2025 season September 6 against Missouri, a $1.8M guarantee game that will fund approximately 26% of its football operating budget. The quarterback taking that field will play for a scholarship and perhaps a five-figure NIL deal. Missouri's quarterback will play for a share of $22M.
The takeaway
Power Four revenue-sharing creates a **$20M** annual gap mid-majors cannot close, turning December's transfer portal into a structural talent drain.
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