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Sports EdgeMACALLAN 1926September 21, 20262 min readAd-free
On enters football with Mbappé, eyes $500M category as second running shoe
Swiss brand pivots from track dominance to pitch, betting star power and product discipline can carve share from Nike and Adidas duopoly.
Sports Edge deskSports Edge · Huang GoodmanSource: China Daily ↗
In plain words
On's football entry with Mbappé targets **$500M** in five years, testing if running-shoe discipline translates to a category where Nike and Adidas control **86%** share.
2021
at a
$500M+
in annual revenue within five years
31%
year-over-year in its most recent quarter
18x
forward revenue multiple
On, the Swiss running brand that went public in 2021 at a $6.6B valuation, is entering football with Kylian Mbappé as its inaugural pitch athlete. The company projects football can generate $500M+ in annual revenue within five years, roughly matching what trail running contributes today. The announcement positions On as the first specialist running brand to mount a serious football play since Brooks abandoned cleats in 2001.
The timing reflects category math, not opportunism. Global football footwear sits near $8B annually, split 62% Nike, 24% Adidas, per Euromonitor. On's running segment grew 31% year-over-year in its most recent quarter, but the company needs a second platform to justify its current 18x forward revenue multiple. Football's injury-replacement cycle—elite players rotate boots every 8-12 matches—offers predictable volume. Mbappé's deal structure wasn't disclosed, but comparable Nike tier-one contracts for Cristiano Ronaldo and Neymar carried $20M-30M annual guarantees before incentives.
On's product strategy borrows from its CloudTec running midsole architecture: a football boot built on the same cushioning pods that captured 4.2% U.S. running specialty share by Q2 2024. Early prototypes shown to select European academies emphasize ground feel over lockdown, targeting the possession midfielder over the winger. That's a deliberate lane choice. Adidas owns the speed market through X Speedportal; Nike controls the Phantom luxury segment. On is betting there's $120M-150M in annual sales chasing the profile of a Rodri or Declan Rice—players whose boot requirements prioritize touch repetition across 90+ minutes.
The Mbappé selection carries specific risk. He switched from Nike to the French federation's €10M Kipsta deal in 2024, then back to Nike four months later after product failures at the Euros. On is his third brand in 18 months. That volatility explains why On is manufacturing at its Vietnam facility rather than outsourcing to the usual Dongguan pipeline—tighter quality loops, faster iteration windows. The company plans 12 colorways across three silos by the 2025-26 season, modest by Nike's 40+ SKU standard but enough to test five European leagues.
Sponsors and kit partners should watch On's distribution model. The brand sells 67% direct-to-consumer, far above Nike's 42% or Adidas's 36%. Football boots historically move through retailer partnerships—Lovell Soccer, Pro:Direct, Foot Locker pitch shops—where margin pressure runs 400-600 basis points higher than owned channels. On hasn't announced whether it will bypass wholesale entirely, but its DTC weighting suggests it might try. If successful, that could reset how second-tier brands like Mizuno, Diadora, or Umbro approach football economics: less retailer support spend, more creator seeding and team kit integrations.
Three follow-on signals matter. First, whether On signs a national team kit deal by Q1 2026—Switzerland, Austria, and Norway federations all have expiring Puma contracts. Second, whether it moves into futsal, where Nike and Adidas leave $220M in annual sales underserved. Third, whether Mbappé still wears On boots if Real Madrid wins the Champions League without him scoring. The company's running athletes—Hellen Obiri, Jemma Reekie—stay locked in because record attempts require continuity. Football switches faster.
On's football move is less about disrupting the Nike-Adidas duopoly and more about proving it can replicate running's playbook in a second high-volume category. The company has never launched a product that failed to reach $50M run-rate within two years. Football will test whether that discipline survives contact with agents, federations, and 22 players per pitch.
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