The Pittsburgh Pirates are running Paul Skenes through late-season variance tests that will define how ownership frames 2025 spending. The 22-year-old right-hander, called up in May after eleven minor-league starts, is navigating his first exposure to playoff-race pressure with a team sitting 4.5 games back of the National League's third Wild Card spot entering the final weeks of September.
Skenes posted a 1.90 ERA through his first ten major-league starts, striking out 35.2% of batters faced. His last four outings have been uneven—5.63 ERA, seven home runs allowed, velocity dipping from 100.2 mph average fastball to 98.7 mph. The Pirates are 2-2 in those games. He faces San Diego's $255M payroll tonight with Pittsburgh needing to win 18 of 22 remaining games to reach 86 wins, the historical floor for Wild Card consideration.
The performance matters less for this season's math than for next winter's budget conversations. Pittsburgh operates the league's sixth-lowest payroll at $107M, a figure owner Bob Nutting has defended by pointing to player development ROI. Skenes was the No. 1 overall pick in 2023, signing for $9.2M, and reached the majors in 11 months. That timeline feeds the front office's argument that drafting and promoting talent internally generates more surplus value than acquiring established veterans.
If Skenes finishes the year showing he needs another offseason to build endurance and command consistency, it gives Pittsburgh cover to run back a similar roster structure in 2025—pre-arbitration arms, roster filler, no marquee signings. If he stabilizes and the Pirates fall short anyway, it shifts pressure onto GM Ben Cherington to add rotation insurance or late-inning leverage. The club has $31M coming off the books from expiring contracts, none of them core players.
Sponsorship partners are watching the same calculus. PNC Bank holds naming rights through 2030 at an estimated $30M total; the deal predates Skenes and was structured assuming Pittsburgh would hover near .500 annually. If the Pirates miss the playoffs for the tenth straight season, renewal conversations with jersey and stadium partners will revert to the same discount-rate logic that has governed local broadcast negotiations. The RSN landscape remains frozen after Diamond Sports' bankruptcy, and the Pirates are one of five teams still without a resolved 2025 broadcast plan.
Agent Scott Boras represents Skenes, which telegraphs future arbitration posture. Boras clients set comparables high, and Skenes will reach arbitration in 2027 if he maintains even 3.0 WAR annually. The Pirates' approach to payroll expansion typically hinges on whether their homegrown players sign extensions below market—see Ke'Bryan Hayes' eight-year, $70M deal in 2022, bought out multiple free-agent years at a 40% discount to projected value. If Skenes follows that template, the org structure holds. If he tests the market, Pittsburgh's model breaks.
The immediate item to track is the Pirates' final 22-game stretch. If they collapse and finish below .500, Nutting and team president Travis Williams will face the familiar offseason press conference defending payroll restraint. If they stay within three games of a Wild Card slot through late September, it changes the narrative and potentially opens budget discussions for a bullpen arm or back-end rotation piece. Skenes' September ERA will be cited either way.
The Padres, meanwhile, are 82-65 and locked into playoff position, running a rotation that includes three pitchers earning $20M+ this season. San Diego's payroll sits $148M higher than Pittsburgh's. The on-field result tonight is a data point; the organizational contrast is the thesis.
The takeaway
Skenes' late-season inconsistency gives Pirates ownership another year of cover for payroll restraint unless he stabilizes and the team finishes above .500.
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