The Cleveland Sirens paid $115 million for a WNBA expansion slot this winter, a figure Jason Wright, the former Washington Commanders president, believes could reach NHL franchise territory—$600 million to $1.2 billion—within 36 months. Wright told reporters the jump is inevitable "save for some weird gender bias," a claim that translates to 5x to 10x valuation growth in under three seasons.
The math requires the WNBA to close revenue gaps that remain structural, not cosmetic. The league's 40-game regular season generated roughly $200 million in total revenue in 2023, according to people familiar with the financials. NHL clubs average $250 million per team annually across 82 games, media rights locked through 2028, and sponsorship inventories that monetize year-round arenas. The WNBA's new $200 million annual media deal with Disney, Amazon, and NBCUniversal begins in 2026—a win, but splits 12 ways currently, soon 15 with Golden State and Portland joining Cleveland. That's roughly $13 million per club before escalators, against NHL teams pulling $80 million from national rights alone.
Magic Johnson surfaced the tension in public comments this week, stating he has not "made a dime" from 12 years owning the Los Angeles Sparks, the franchise he bought for an undisclosed sum in 2014. The Sparks have won one title under his watch, play in a top-three market, and still operate as a patient capital bet. Johnson's disclosure matters because the Cleveland valuation—10x what early franchises traded for in the 2010s—assumes the Caitlin Clark attendance surge converts into durable ticket, merchandise, and local sponsorship income. Clark's rookie season drove Iowa and Indiana games to 17,000-seat sellouts in NBA arenas. The question is whether that scales when she is not on the visiting bench. Early data from 2025 preseason inventory suggests teams are pricing 20% above 2024 levels for non-marquee opponents, testing whether casual fans return without a Clark sighting.
The NHL comparison works if the WNBA captures a proportional share of women's sports sponsorship spend, which Deloitte estimates will exceed $1 billion annually by 2025. Brands like State Farm, Google, and Nike already treat WNBA inventory as premium, but activation budgets remain a fraction of NBA or NFL commitments. The Sirens secured Sherwin-Williams as a founding partner—Northeast Ohio corporate money, logical fit—but the jersey patch fetched an estimated $3 million annually, roughly one-tenth what Cavaliers patches command. Wright's timeline assumes that gap narrows as women's sports ratings prove stable and younger demos shift spend.
Chris Bosh's public comparison this week of the Sirens' price to Mark Cuban's $285 million Mavericks purchase in 2000 underscores the reflexive optimism. Cuban bought into a league with guaranteed national TV money and 29 revenue-sharing partners. The WNBA's model still leans on NBA subsidies for operations, though the league has stated it expects to be profitable by 2027. If that holds, and if attendance sustains 8,500 per game league-wide—up from 6,600 in 2023—then Wright's $600 million floor becomes plausible arithmetic, not aspiration.
What to watch: Cleveland's local media deal structure, expected by June, will signal whether Bally Sports or a streaming partner values WNBA rights closer to MLS or NWSL comps. Golden State's sponsorship announcements in Q2 matter more—Silicon Valley money prices optimism higher than Rust Belt pragmatism. The third data point is Las Vegas, where the Aces are rumored to be exploring a $400 million sale to MGM-adjacent buyers, per two people with knowledge of early conversations. If that closes above $300 million, Wright's 36-month window compresses.
The NHL's average franchise is worth $1.03 billion today because it monetizes 12 months of inventory, not four. The WNBA gets there when the math works without the footnote.
The takeaway
WNBA franchises priced at **$115M** need **5x revenue growth** in three years to justify NHL comps—possible only if Clark effect becomes structural income.
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