# Jack Daniel's proved digital billboards compound sales 15-20% via marketing mix modeling *Brand ran controlled MMM test with Accenture Song to isolate outdoor's actual contribution beyond last-click attribution.* By **Jenny Huang Goodman MPA MSc MHSA, Principal** — The Stash Edge, Hako Shikin LLC. Published 2026-09-10. Canonical: https://www.pops4.com/stash/articles/jack-daniels-2026-09-10t03-2 Subject: Jack Daniel's Tags: attribution, marketing-mix-modeling, out-of-home, testing, measurement, dooh --- Jack Daniel's deployed marketing mix modeling to measure digital out-of-home's true sales impact, documenting a compounding lift that traditional attribution missed entirely, according to Mi-3.com.au. Working with Accenture Song and a Big Four consultancy, the brand isolated DOOH's incremental contribution to both brand metrics and direct sales, finding effects that persisted well beyond exposure windows. The brand structured the test to compare markets with varying DOOH spend levels while controlling for other media variables. Marketing mix models regressed sales data against all active channels—social, search, TV, outdoor—to separate correlation from causation. The analysis revealed DOOH delivered a **15-20% compounding effect** on sales when layered with other channels, a lift invisible to last-click models that credit only the final touchpoint before purchase. The mechanism is temporal and cross-channel. Digital billboards create unaided awareness in high-traffic zones where consumers cannot immediately transact. Hours or days later, those same consumers search branded terms or respond to retargeting. Last-click attribution assigns the conversion to search or social; MMM assigns appropriate credit to the outdoor exposure that initialized the journey. The model also captured a halo effect: markets with sustained DOOH presence showed elevated baseline sales even in weeks without active campaigns, suggesting outdoor builds durable mental availability that reduces acquisition cost over time. The work surfaced a data infrastructure problem. Outdoor vendors control impression and location data but lack purchase files. Brands hold transaction records but cannot tie them to specific billboard exposures without vendor cooperation. Jack Daniel's negotiated data-sharing agreements that fed granular DOOH delivery logs into the MMM, allowing the model to isolate outdoor's variable contribution across geographies and dayparts. The consultancy ran the regression, controlling for seasonality, price promotions, and competitive activity. A small physical-product brand can run a lighter version of this play without a six-figure analytics contract. Start with a simple on-off test in matched geographies. Pick two similar metro areas—comparable population, income, retail footprint. Run digital outdoor in one market for eight weeks at a minimum **$2,000-$3,000** monthly spend to achieve meaningful reach. Keep all other marketing identical across both markets: same email cadence, same ad creative, same influencer partnerships. Track weekly sales by market in your Shopify or Amazon dashboard. The difference in sales trajectory between the DOOH market and the control market is your outdoor lift, net of other variables. Document baseline sales for both markets in the four weeks before the test. Run outdoor. Measure weekly sales during the eight-week flight and four weeks after. If the DOOH market's sales growth outpaces the control market by **10% or more** during and after the flight, outdoor is working. If the gap persists post-flight, you have evidence of compounding effect. Export the data to a simple spreadsheet, calculate percentage lift, and you have a defensible read on outdoor's incremental contribution without hiring a consultancy. Use programmatic DOOH platforms like Hivestack, Vistar, or Broadsign to buy inventory in the test market. Geofence your creative to high-traffic zones near retail partners or within two miles of your top ZIP codes by customer concentration. Sync the flight dates with a trackable offer—a unique discount code or landing page URL exclusive to the outdoor creative—so you can separate outdoor-influenced conversions from organic traffic. Run the same offer in the control market via email only. The difference in redemption rate by source is another outdoor attribution signal. The broader pattern is that offline channels create demand that online channels capture, and single-touch attribution systematically misallocates credit. Brands that measure only last click will under-invest in outdoor, experiential, and retail presence because those channels rarely close the sale in the moment of exposure. Marketing mix modeling corrects for that by modeling sales as a function of all media inputs over time, revealing which channels initialize purchase intent and which merely harvest it. Jack Daniel's documented the split; now smaller brands can test the hypothesis on their own budget and move spend accordingly. ## The takeaway Run DOOH in one market, hold it dark in a matched control, track the sales gap—that's your outdoor lift without a consultancy. --- ## Publisher **Hako Shikin LLC** — Virginia Beach, Virginia. Founded 1997. ASI 217876 · DUNS 18-204-6339. Principal and author: **Jenny Huang Goodman MPA MSc MHSA**. - Author: https://www.huanggoodman.com/about - LLM context: https://www.pops4.com/stash/llms.txt - MCP endpoint, for AI agents: https://mcp.pops4.com/mcp - Client dashboard: https://dashboard.pops4.com/ - Catalogue: 70,000+ products, 200+ brands