# Retail media networks switch to incrementality tests, forcing brands to prove 15-30% lift before scaling spend

*Albertsons, Mondelēz, and Academy now measure whether campaigns cause new sales, not just correlate with them.*

By **Jenny Huang Goodman MPA MSc MHSA, Principal** — The Stash Edge, Hako Shikin LLC.
Published 2026-08-03.

Canonical: https://www.pops4.com/stash/articles/retail-media-networks-multi-brand-pattern-2026-08-03t15-6
Subject: Retail media networks (multi-brand pattern)
Tags: retail media, incrementality, in-store marketing, proof of performance, physical product, shelf play

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Retail media networks have quietly changed the proof standard. Albertsons, Mondelēz, and Academy are among the retailers and brands now requiring incrementality measurement before scaling in-store campaign spend, according to reporting across trade publications. The shift moves away from attribution models that credit the last touchpoint and toward controlled tests that isolate whether a campaign caused lift. For brands selling physical products, this means you now prove a **15-30%** sales increase in exposed stores versus control stores, or you don't get budget approval for the next quarter.

The mechanics are straightforward. A retailer splits stores into test and control groups, runs the campaign in test stores only, and compares basket data at checkout. Albertsons measures whether shoppers who saw an ad bought more units than unexposed shoppers in matched demographics. Mondelēz tests whether display ads in a grocery app drove category purchases that wouldn't have happened otherwise. Academy Sports evaluates whether an email promotion to loyalty members increased transaction size beyond the seasonal baseline. The common thread: proof of causation, not correlation.

This works because incrementality isolates the campaign's marginal contribution. Attribution gives credit to the last click or impression, which often just captures demand that already existed. A shopper who sees your ad and then buys may have bought anyway. Incrementality answers the harder question: did the campaign create a sale that otherwise would not have occurred? That distinction matters when a retail media network bills you per impression and you need to justify spend to finance. The **15-30%** lift range is the documented threshold retailers now cite as the floor for continued investment, according to industry sources.

The steal for a small brand starts with your retail partner's data team. Most regional grocers, sporting goods chains, and specialty retailers now offer some form of store-level testing, even if they don't advertise it. Approach your buyer or category manager and ask for a matched-market test: ten stores get your shelf talker or end-cap display, ten matched stores don't, and you compare unit sales over four weeks. Cost: usually the display materials and co-op dollars you'd spend anyway, plus the buyer's time to set it up. The data comes from the retailer's POS system. You're looking for a statistically significant lift in units per store per week in the test group. If you clear **15%**, you have the proof to request chain-wide rollout.

For a brand with budget, work directly with the retail media network's measurement team. Kroger Precision Marketing, Walmart Connect, and Target's Roundel all offer incrementality studies as a paid service, typically **$10,000–$25,000** per test depending on store count and duration. You define the campaign, they design the test, and you receive a report with lift by SKU, category spillover, and return on ad spend. Use this for higher-stake plays: a new product launch, a seasonal promotion, or a pitch to expand distribution. The documented lift becomes the slide you show the VP of sales when requesting more shelf space or a better planogram position.

The broader pattern is proof replacing proximity. For a decade, retail media sold on the premise that reaching shoppers near the point of purchase was inherently valuable. That's still true, but finance teams now ask whether the campaign changed behavior or simply rode existing intent. Incrementality testing forces brands to design campaigns that move the middle of the funnel—education, consideration, preference—rather than just harvesting bottom-funnel demand. If your in-store play is a QR code on a shelf talker that links to a product demo video, and the incrementality test shows a **22%** lift in units sold, you've proven the mechanism works and you have the data to scale it across every retailer in your channel.

## The takeaway

Retailers now require **15-30%** lift in controlled tests before scaling in-store campaigns—approach your buyer for a matched-market trial.

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## Publisher

**Hako Shikin LLC** — Virginia Beach, Virginia. Founded 1997. ASI 217876 · DUNS 18-204-6339.
Principal and author: **Jenny Huang Goodman MPA MSc MHSA**.

- Author: https://www.huanggoodman.com/about
- LLM context: https://www.pops4.com/stash/llms.txt
- MCP endpoint, for AI agents: https://mcp.pops4.com/mcp
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