# Walmart Connect runs lift studies to prove ad ROI before brands sign holiday budgets

*The retailer is using attribution data to compete with Amazon for brand ad dollars, per Digiday.*

By **Jenny Huang Goodman MPA MSc MHSA, Principal** — The Stash Edge, Hako Shikin LLC.
Published 2026-10-22.

Canonical: https://www.pops4.com/stash/articles/walmart-connect-2026-10-22t21-5
Subject: Walmart Connect
Tags: attribution, retail media, incrementality, pre-sale proof, performance marketing

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Walmart Connect is running lift studies to prove ad effectiveness to brands before they commit holiday budgets, according to Digiday. The retailer is pitching brands directly with measurement data that shows incremental sales lift from sponsored product ads, a move designed to compete with Amazon's advertising platform ahead of the fourth quarter.

The lift studies track whether a customer who saw a Walmart Connect ad bought the product versus a control group who did not see the ad. Walmart Connect presents the incremental sales data to brands during pitch meetings, offering proof of return before the brand signs the insertion order. The attribution window typically runs **14 to 30 days** post-impression, according to Digiday's reporting, and the studies are run in-house using Walmart's first-party transaction data.

This works because brands buying retail media spend against performance, not reach. A CPG brand running a holiday campaign on Walmart.com does not care about impressions. It cares whether the ad moved units off the digital shelf. By running the lift study before the deal closes, Walmart Connect turns attribution into a sales tool. The brand sees the incrementality number, compares it to Amazon's ROAS, and allocates budget accordingly. The study also de-risks the spend. A brand that sees a **12% lift** in a test is more likely to commit a six-figure holiday budget than one guessing at performance.

The broader mechanism is pre-sale proof. Walmart Connect is not offering measurement as a post-campaign report. It is offering measurement as the pitch. The brand gets the ROI data before it wires the money, which shifts the negotiation from media planning to performance buying. This is a direct challenge to Amazon, which has historically used scale and frequency to justify ad spend. Walmart Connect is using incrementality to win the same dollars.

A small physical-product brand can run the same play without a retail media platform. Before you ask a buyer to commit to a promotion, gifting deal, or bulk order, run a small test and measure the result. Sell a dozen units through a single corporate gifting contact, track repeat orders, and present the usage data when you pitch the next buyer. Or run a limited-time promotion with one retail partner, measure the sell-through rate, and use that number to negotiate better terms with the next stockist. The pattern is identical: test, measure, prove incrementality, then ask for the larger commitment. The cost is the margin on the test batch and the time to track the result.

For a brand with a real budget, the lift study becomes a formal pre-sale asset. You run a controlled promotion with two matched customer segments, measure the difference in conversion or repeat purchase rate, and present the incremental revenue per dollar spent when you pitch a larger partnership. If you are selling through distributors, you can run the study with one distributor's customer base, document the lift, and use that data to negotiate better placement or co-op funding with others. The study does not need to be statistically perfect. It needs to show a documented difference that a buyer can use to justify the purchase internally.

The counsel applies to procurement buyers sourcing branded product at volume. Ask the vendor for incremental proof before you commit the budget. Request a test shipment, run it with a subset of your employee or customer base, and measure engagement or reorder rate. If the vendor cannot or will not provide a test batch, the risk is on you. If they run the test and show you the lift, the risk shifts to them. You are buying performance, not a product spec. The incrementality number is the only input that matters.

## The takeaway

Run a small test, measure the incremental result, and sell the proof before you ask for the larger commitment.

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## Publisher

**Hako Shikin LLC** — Virginia Beach, Virginia. Founded 1997. ASI 217876 · DUNS 18-204-6339.
Principal and author: **Jenny Huang Goodman MPA MSc MHSA**.

- Author: https://www.huanggoodman.com/about
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