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Comcast$CMCSA · filed: saw revenue fall 0.0% in FY2025 to $123.7BNew shipTrillion Score 482Fall Risk LowNext year $112.3B–$128.4B sealedCheck ▾Close ▴
What Comcast filed
Saw revenue fall 0.0% in FY2025 to $123.7 billion, operating margin 16.7% against a 5.8% median for cable & other pay television services, equity 35.5% of assets, and dividend per share up 10 years running. Every figure links to the filing it came from on Comcast’s card. New ship: no warning signs. Trillion Score 482, #9 of 12 in its field; Fall Risk Low (how it is measured).
What the house said in advance
Revenue for the fiscal year after 2025-12-31 between $112.3B and $128.4B, an 80% range sealed on 26 Sept 2026 · receipt #81b903 · graded in public by the revenue in Comcast’s next annual report.
Figures as filed with the SEC. Ranges, scores and boats are statistical descriptions of past filings, not ratings or recommendations. Reporting, not advice.
In plain words
Comcast isolates **$7B** in declining TV assets; Moody's flags credit risk as the spun entity faces **4.5x** leverage and near-certain consolidation pressure.
$7 billion
in annual revenue from its core cable and broadband…
4.2%
in pre-market trading before settling
2.8%
higher by mid-morning
22 million
European subscribers
Comcast announced Monday it will spin NBCUniversal and its European Sky operations into a standalone public company, separating $7 billion in annual revenue from its core cable and broadband business. The stock rose 4.2% in pre-market trading before settling 2.8% higher by mid-morning. The move isolates declining linear television assets while preserving the parent's investment-grade credit profile — or tries to.
The new entity combines NBCUniversal's broadcast and cable networks with Sky's 22 million European subscribers. Comcast retains its domestic broadband infrastructure, Peacock streaming service, and the NBCUniversal film studio. The separation is structured as a tax-free spin to existing shareholders, expected to close in twelve months pending regulatory clearance. Comcast has not yet named leadership for the spun entity, though CFO Michael Cavanagh told analysts the company would operate as a "pure-play content and distribution business" with the scale to negotiate carriage deals independently.
This is a admission that the Cable-Plus-Content thesis no longer works. Comcast paid $16.7 billion for Sky in 2018, betting that owning pipes and programming would create pricing power. Instead, cord-cutting accelerated and streaming economics punished everyone who wasn't Netflix. By separating now, Comcast ring-fences its broadband business — still generating 60% gross margins in major markets — from the terminal decline of linear TV, where ad revenue dropped 8% year-over-year in the most recent quarter. The spun entity will carry roughly $30 billion in debt, much of it tied to the Sky acquisition, and face immediate pressure to either consolidate with a peer or begin selling assets.
Moody's placed Comcast's A3 credit rating under review for downgrade Tuesday, citing "reduced revenue diversification" and concerns that the smaller entity will lack the cash flow to service debt during a cyclical downturn. The rating agency is particularly focused on the spun company's leverage, which will exceed 4.5x EBITDA at inception. That puts it in the same territory as Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount — both of which trade below $10 per share and have been forced into successive restructurings. The implicit message: Comcast is pre-positioning for either a distressed sale or a merger with another struggling media conglomerate, likely within eighteen months.
Allocators should monitor three events. First, the proxy statement filing in Q1 2025, which will detail debt allocation and reveal whether Comcast retains any financial support obligations. Second, Sky's subscriber trends in the UK and Germany, where competition from Amazon and Disney has already eroded 1.4 million customers since 2021. Third, any merger discussions involving the spun entity and Warner Bros. Discovery, whose CEO David Zaslav has publicly stated he expects "industry consolidation" by late 2025. The FTC's posture on media mergers under the next administration will determine whether this spinoff becomes a standalone turnaround story or the opening bid in a sector-wide clearance sale.
Comcast will report Q4 earnings in late January. The market will price the spinoff based on what management says about Peacock's path to profitability and whether the broadband business can grow average revenue per user fast enough to offset volume declines.
Branded by POPS4 · proof in 60 seconds
For the principal
Watch the proxy for debt-loading mechanics; this isolates broadband growth from terminal content bleed and invites opportunistic media consolidation.
For the operator
Track Sky churn and Warner merger chatter; the spun entity is a pre-packaged M&A target with 4.5x leverage and structural revenue decline.
For the house
Long Comcast post-spin on broadband pricing power; short the spun entity bonds if allocation exceeds $28B debt at issuance.
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