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Costco$COST · filed: grew revenue 10.1% in FY2026 to $303.2BNew shipTrillion Score 465Fall Risk LowNext year $297.7B–$343.0B sealedCheck ▾Close ▴
What Costco filed
Grew revenue 10.1% in FY2026 to $303.2 billion, operating margin 3.9% against a 4.9% median for variety stores, equity 40.2% of assets, and dividend per share up 1 year running. Every figure links to the filing it came from on Costco’s card. New ship: no warning signs. Trillion Score 465, #6 of 9 in its field; Fall Risk Low (how it is measured).
What the house said in advance
Revenue for the fiscal year after 2026-08-30 between $297.7B and $343.0B, an 80% range sealed on 8 Oct 2026 · receipt #845c98 · graded in public by the revenue in Costco’s next annual report.
Figures as filed with the SEC. Ranges, scores and boats are statistical descriptions of past filings, not ratings or recommendations. Reporting, not advice.
In plain words
Costco's cash position suggests H2 2026 special dividend is operationally feasible; watch CFO language shift in December earnings.
$17.3 billion
in cash and equivalents as of Q2 fiscal 2025
22%
year-over-year and the highest absolute level in company history
$10
per share
$15
per share
Costco Wholesale is sitting on $17.3 billion in cash and equivalents as of Q2 fiscal 2025, up 22% year-over-year and the highest absolute level in company history. Sell-side analysts at TD Cowen and Evercore ISI are now modeling a special dividend in the second half of calendar 2026, following the pattern Costco has established over the past two decades of returning excess capital when liquidity reaches specific thresholds relative to debt.
The company has issued five special dividends since 2012, each ranging from $7 to $10 per share. The most recent was in January 2024 at $15 per share, totaling $6.7 billion in aggregate shareholder distribution. Costco's cash-to-total-debt ratio now stands at 1.8x, exceeding the 1.5x level that preceded the last three special dividends. Operating cash flow for the trailing twelve months reached $11.2 billion, while net debt sits at $9.1 billion, giving management substantial flexibility without threatening the company's investment-grade credit profile or its ability to fund store expansion.
The timing matters because Costco operates with structural cash efficiency that most retailers cannot replicate. Membership fees of $4.8 billion annually arrive before inventory costs, creating negative working capital cycles that compound as the warehouse count grows. The company opened 26 net new locations in fiscal 2024 and has guided to 30 in fiscal 2025, requiring roughly $4 billion in annual capex. That leaves $7 billion in excess free cash flow after dividends and expansion, assuming no share repurchase activity. Costco has not repurchased stock since 2020, preferring the special dividend mechanism when cash builds beyond operational and strategic needs.
Allocators should watch two markers in the next eighteen months. First, Costco's fiscal Q4 2025 earnings in late September will clarify whether cash continues accumulating at the current pace or if inventory buildup for holiday season moderates liquidity. Second, any shift in language from CFO Richard Galanti's successor Gary Millerchip regarding capital allocation philosophy during Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings in December would signal board-level discussions on special dividend timing. The company has historically announced special dividends in December or January, with payment sixty to ninety days later.
The $15 per share payout in January 2024 arrived without warning and moved the stock 4% in two sessions. A similar-sized distribution in early 2027 would represent roughly 3.5% of current market capitalization, material enough to shift portfolio yield calculations for income-focused allocators holding Costco as a quality defensive position. The stock trades at 47x forward earnings, expensive by historical standards but justified by 8% comparable-store sales growth and 52-week membership renewal rates above 92%. The special dividend optionality is not priced in.
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For the principal
If holding Costco in taxable accounts, prepare for potential $12-15/share distribution by Q1 2027; consider tax-loss harvesting coordination.
For the operator
Model 3-5% yield bump for 2027 if special dividend hits; defensible at current multiple only if cash return timing confirmed.
For the house
Huang Goodman holds no position; watching for confirmation in September quarter before initiating synthetic dividend capture via January '27 options.
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