Goldman Survey: 40% of Family Offices Plan Equity Allocation Increases Within 24 Months

Goldman Sachs released survey data showing that nearly 40 percent of family offices intend to increase allocations to both public and private equity over the next two years. The figure applies to each category separately—40 percent plan to raise public equity exposure, and a similar proportion target private equity expansions. The timing coincides with family office AUM growth and a broader structural shift in how ultra-high-net-worth principals deploy capital outside traditional fixed income.

The survey did not disclose total respondent count or regional breakdown, but Goldman's family office client base skews toward North American and European single-family offices managing north of $500 million in investable assets. The dual commitment to public and private equity suggests allocators are not choosing between liquid and illiquid risk, but expanding both in tandem. That pattern typically appears when principals expect returns to justify illiquidity premia and when public markets offer sector exposure unavailable in private deals—technology infrastructure, energy transition hardware, and select healthcare subsectors.

This matters because family offices move slower than hedge funds but hold positions longer than pension funds. A 40 percent intention rate, if executed, implies material inflows to both venture and growth equity funds, and to large-cap equity strategies that can absorb nine-figure tickets without market impact. It also means family offices are signaling confidence in a risk asset cycle extending into 2026, despite rate uncertainty and election-year volatility. The survey result aligns with recent data showing family office formation accelerating—offices managing over $1 billion grew by double digits in 2023 and 2024, per separate industry trackers.

The public equity piece deserves attention. Family offices historically underweight public markets relative to endowments or sovereign wealth funds, preferring direct deals and co-investments. A deliberate move into public equity suggests either: (1) principals see valuation dislocations in large-cap names that private markets have already arbitraged away, or (2) liquidity preference is rising as families prepare for intergenerational transfers or strategic exits from concentrated operating businesses. The private equity commitment is less surprising—families continue to chase yield and control, and the asset class delivered despite exit headwinds in 2023-2024.

Allocators should watch for three follow-on signals. First, whether public equity inflows favor index products or active managers—family offices hiring dedicated public equity analysts would indicate structural allocation shifts, not tactical tilts. Second, whether private equity commitments concentrate in buyout funds or venture and growth vehicles; the former implies confidence in operational value creation, the latter in multiple expansion. Third, whether fixed income allocations decline in parallel—if equity increases come from cash or alternatives, the signal is cleaner than if they come from duration reduction. Goldman will likely release follow-up survey details within 90 days, standard cadence for their institutional research calendar.

The survey did not specify whether the 40 percent figure includes families already overweight equities or those rebalancing from underweight positions. That distinction matters. If the latter, aggregate family office equity exposure could approach 60-65 percent of total AUM by late 2025, a level last seen in 2021 before the rate cycle turned. The number to watch is not the intention, but the deployment pace—whether commitments convert to cash calls and stock purchases within six months or stretch across the full 24-month window.