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The Goldman Sachs Group$GS · filed: grew revenue 8.9% in FY2025 to $58.3BSound shipNext year $51.2B–$71.8B sealedCheck ▾Close ▴
What The Goldman Sachs Group filed
Grew revenue 8.9% in FY2025 to $58.3 billion, equity 6.9% of assets, and dividend per share up 15 years running. Every figure links to the filing it came from on The Goldman Sachs Group’s card. Sound ship: one warning sign.
What the house said in advance
Revenue for the fiscal year after 2025-12-31 between $51.2B and $71.8B, an 80% range sealed on 10 Nov 2026 · receipt #65caf6 · graded in public by the revenue in The Goldman Sachs Group’s next annual report.
Figures as filed with the SEC. Ranges, scores and boats are statistical descriptions of past filings, not ratings or recommendations. Reporting, not advice.
In plain words
Goldman identifies **$1.3 trillion** in asset-backed credit tied to AI and manufacturing infrastructure, offering **150-220 bps** over compressed direct lending yields.
$1.3 trillion
across equipment finance
10.2%
in Q2 2023 to
8.7%
in Q4 2024 as
$213 billion
in dry powder chases the same
Goldman Sachs issued a research note to private credit allocators signaling a structural rotation from covenant-lite direct lending into asset-backed finance structures tied to AI data centers, power infrastructure, and onshored manufacturing facilities. The firm's Alternative Investments and Private Credit group quantified the addressable market at $1.3 trillion across equipment finance, project debt, and real-asset collateral pools—three times the capital currently deployed in traditional middle-market direct lending.
The shift responds to spread compression in sponsor-backed software and services deals, where all-in yields have fallen from 10.2% in Q2 2023 to 8.7% in Q4 2024 as $213 billion in dry powder chases the same 1,800 borrowers tracked by Pitchbook. Goldman's note detailed that asset-backed structures offer 150-220 basis points of excess return versus comparable direct lending tranches, driven by collateral recovery rates above 72% and lower default correlation during credit cycles. The firm highlighted GPU server farms, modular nuclear installations, and battery storage projects as under-financed assets where physical collateral and offtake contracts replace enterprise cash flow as the primary credit vector.
This matters because private credit reached scale by financing leveraged buyouts—a transaction type now contested by banks re-entering the market with $94 billion in new lending commitments through Q1 2025. Asset-backed finance requires different underwriting infrastructure: engineering assessments, collateral liquidation networks, and regulatory fluency in power markets or semiconductor supply chains. Family offices and endowments that scaled direct lending teams in 2019-2022 now face a build-or-partner decision, as the operational complexity of valuing a 420-megawatt data center transformer differs materially from analyzing recurring revenue software models. Goldman's positioning suggests the largest managers will internalize this capability while smaller allocators face margin pressure in their legacy direct lending books.
Operators should monitor three developments over the next nine months. First, whether Blackstone, Ares, and Apollo announce dedicated asset-backed infrastructure funds above $8 billion, validating Goldman's thesis with committed capital. Second, the pace of bank exits from project finance as Basel III Endgame finalizes—if $40+ billion in bank-held infrastructure debt refinances into private credit by Q3 2025, the opportunity set expands faster than Goldman modeled. Third, whether credit agreements for AI data centers establish standardized collateral definitions and intercreditor frameworks, reducing legal friction and enabling institutional participation at scale.
The most liquid asset-backed opportunities will close by mid-2026 if allocation velocity matches the $71 billion that moved into private credit CLOs during 2023's direct lending surge.
Branded by POPS4 · proof in 60 seconds
For the principal
Evaluate whether your credit allocation team can underwrite physical collateral or if co-investment partnerships with infrastructure specialists become necessary within six months.
For the operator
Goldman's spread premium estimates assume 72% recovery rates; stress-test your direct lending book against asset-backed migration before refinancing windows open in Q3.
For the house
Huang Goodman opens research on Nuveen, Ares Infrastructure, and Carlyle Power for clients seeking asset-backed exposure with institutional liquidity terms before $8 billion funds close.
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