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Gucci's narrowest revenue decline in six quarters validated new product strategy and sent Kering up **11%** while peers lagged.
11%
on July 29 after Gucci reported organic revenue declined…
2%
in the second quarter
270 basis points
better than the
4.7%
drop analysts had modeled
Kering closed up 11% on July 29 after Gucci reported organic revenue declined just 2% in the second quarter, 270 basis points better than the 4.7% drop analysts had modeled. The beat marks the narrowest contraction since late 2023 and the first clean data point under Sabato De Sarno's creative direction.
Gucci delivered €2.8 billion in Q2 revenue, down from €2.86 billion a year earlier. The brand's new Borsetto and Paparazzo handbags—both launched in April—posted double-digit sellthrough rates in flagship stores across Milan, Paris, and Shanghai. Men's bags, a category Gucci had neglected under Alessandro Michele, grew mid-single digits sequentially. The data confirms what floor traffic suggested in June: product is moving again. Kering's other houses posted mixed results—Saint Laurent flat, Bottega Veneta up low-single digits—but the Gucci stabilization was enough to reverse five months of net selling.
The timing matters because Kering's new CEO, Francesca Bellettini, who took the role in January, is steering capital toward jewelry and accessories while De Sarno rebuilds ready-to-wear credibility. The company has opened 12 new High Jewelry salons in the past six months, including flagships in Dubai, Seoul, and a 4,000-square-foot space on Madison Avenue. Jewelry now represents 18% of Gucci's total revenue, up from 13% two years ago. Bellettini's bet: jewelry has higher incremental margins, requires less markdown risk, and skews toward repeat clients rather than tourist traffic. The Q2 data supports the thesis—Gucci's jewelry category grew 9% even as apparel contracted 6%.
The rally isolated Kering from broader luxury weakness. LVMH trades flat after missing on selective retailing. Hermès fell 3% on softer-than-expected leather goods comps in China, where zero-COVID hangover continues to suppress aspirational spend. Kering's outperformance reflects both low expectations—shares were down 38% year-to-date before the print—and genuine evidence that De Sarno's product is clearing. Allocators who sold Kering in Q1 are now deciding whether this is a one-quarter dead-cat bounce or the start of a multi-year margin recovery.
Watch Gucci's wholesale channel in Q3. The brand still has €400 million in off-price inventory sitting with department stores and online resellers, a legacy of over-production under the prior regime. If Kering can hold wholesale flat while growing retail, it signals pricing power is returning. The company reports Q3 revenue in late October. Bellettini has guided to "modest sequential improvement" through year-end, which implies a Q4 decline in the low-single digits. The jewelry salons take 18-24 months to reach maturity, so margin accretion likely appears in fiscal 2025 rather than this year.
Kering now trades at 12.4x forward earnings, a 40% discount to LVMH and 55% below Hermès. The valuation assumes Gucci never returns to growth. Tuesday's print didn't prove otherwise, but it showed the decline is decelerating on schedule.
Branded by POPS4 · proof in 60 seconds
For the principal
Kering's discount to LVMH widened to 40% before this print; turnaround optionality now repriced at 12-18 month horizon.
For the operator
Watch Q3 wholesale trajectory and comp-store jewelry growth; margin recovery timeline extends into fiscal 2025, not 2024.
For the house
Maintain underweight European luxury; Kering position sized for tactical mean-reversion, not structural re-rating until Q4 data.
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