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LVMH and Hermès decouple from Kering and Burberry; U.S. carries Q3, China delivers **+2%** only.
€19.96B
in Q3 revenue
9%
organic gain led by U
11.3%
confirming its insulation from broader demand erosion
15%
dragged by Gucci's
LVMH reported €19.96B in Q3 revenue, a 9% organic gain led by U.S. market resilience and selective product launches. Hermès posted €3.7B, up 11.3%, confirming its insulation from broader demand erosion. Kering delivered €3.79B, down 15%, dragged by Gucci's -25% comparable decline in Asia-Pacific. Burberry's interim results showed £1.09B in H1 revenue, down 22%, with the brand now guiding to an operating loss for the full year.
The dispersion marks a structural shift. LVMH's Wines & Spirits segment declined 7% on U.S. wholesale destocking, but Fashion & Leather Goods rose 9%, driven by Dior handbag and Louis Vuitton trunk sales in North America. Hermès saw +13% growth in the Americas and Japan, while China mainland delivered +1% — technically positive but the slowest pace since 2020. Kering's exposure to Gucci, which constitutes 46% of group revenue, amplified the brand's creative transition under Sabato De Sarno. Burberry cited a £80M impairment on store assets and a 40% drop in profit before tax, reflecting its failed repositioning under former CEO Jonathan Akeroyd.
The China variable remains binary. Mainland sales across the four houses averaged +2% in Q3, a sharp deceleration from +8% in 2023's comparable period. Travel retail in Hainan showed marginal recovery — +4% foot traffic, -2% average transaction value — suggesting Chinese consumers are present but cautious. U.S. strength is masking this. LVMH's North American segment now represents 28% of total revenue, up from 24% two years prior, with sustained momentum in Los Angeles, Miami, and New York flagship locations. Hermès confirmed 14-week wait times for Birkin and Kelly bags in the U.S., signaling pricing power and inventory discipline.
Operators and allocators should watch January 2025 Chinese New Year sales velocity, particularly in Hainan duty-free channels and Shanghai Tier-1 retail. LVMH's Q4 Wines & Spirits performance will clarify whether U.S. wholesaler destocking persists into spring. Kering's February Milan Fashion Week showing for Gucci will be the first full collection under De Sarno with commercial accountability. Burberry's cost-reduction program, targeting £40M in annualized savings, reports progress in March.
Hermès just guided leather goods production capacity to expand 6% by mid-2025, the first meaningful increase since 2022.
Branded by POPS4 · proof in 60 seconds
For the principal
Hermès allocation remains justified; LVMH holds but watch Wines drag; exit or underweight Kering until Gucci stabilizes.
For the operator
Track Hainan duty-free January velocity and LVMH Q4 Wines segment for U.S. wholesale normalization timing evidence.
For the house
Maintain Hermès long in Porthos; reduce LVMH weight by 30bps; short Kering pairs against LVMH in Athos.
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