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MGIC Investment$MTG · filed: grew revenue 0.5% in FY2025 to $1.2BNew shipNext year $1.1B–$1.3B sealedCheck ▾Close ▴
What MGIC Investment filed
Grew revenue 0.5% in FY2025 to $1.2 billion, equity 77.5% of assets, and dividend per share up 1 year running. Every figure links to the filing it came from on MGIC Investment’s card. New ship: no warning signs.
What the house said in advance
Revenue for the fiscal year after 2025-12-31 between $1.1B and $1.3B, an 80% range sealed on 27 Sept 2026 · receipt #d3adc5 · graded in public by the revenue in MGIC Investment’s next annual report.
Figures as filed with the SEC. Ranges, scores and boats are statistical descriptions of past filings, not ratings or recommendations. Reporting, not advice.
In plain words
MGIC's **$750 million** buyback through 2028 bets on stable mortgage credit and tests whether the company can return capital faster than housing sentiment deteriorates.
$750 million
share repurchase program running through December 2028
$14.87
at year-end 2024
$5.6 billion
in total equity against a market capitalization near
$6.2 billion
as of late April
MGIC Investment Corporation authorized a $750 million share repurchase program running through December 2028, giving the Milwaukee-based mortgage insurance provider three and a half years to deploy capital into its own equity. The board filed the authorization without immediate disclosure of pace or price thresholds, leaving execution discretion with management.
The program replaces no prior authorization and sits alongside a quarterly dividend payment scheduled for May 21. MGIC's book value per share stood at $14.87 at year-end 2024, with the company carrying $5.6 billion in total equity against a market capitalization near $6.2 billion as of late April. The authorization represents roughly 12 percent of current market value, scaled for multi-year deployment rather than immediate compression.
Mortgage insurers return capital when loss reserves stabilize and new insurance written remains profitable at prevailing rates. MGIC's move comes as refinance activity stalls under 6.8 percent thirty-year fixed rates and purchase volume flattens in the spring selling season. The company's risk-to-capital ratio—regulated at the state level—remains comfortably below triggering thresholds, allowing buybacks without regulatory friction. Management is signaling that actuarial models on 2022-2024 vintages show benign loss curves, justifying capital return over portfolio expansion.
The three-year horizon matters more than the dollar figure. Mortgage insurers saw claim frequency spike in 2008-2011, then spent a decade rebuilding capital before resuming buybacks in the late 2010s. MGIC's extended window suggests confidence that current underwriting holds even if unemployment ticks higher or home prices correct modestly in overheated markets. The company insured $15.3 billion in new mortgages during Q4 2024, a 9 percent decline year-over-year, yet persistency on existing policies improved as borrowers stayed put. That mix—lower new volume, higher renewal revenue—favors capital return over growth investment.
Allocators should watch MGIC's quarterly pace of execution and whether management layers in a 10b5-1 plan for systematic purchases or retains full discretion. If the company depletes the authorization early—say, within eighteen months—it signals either opportunistic buying after a price dip or a permanent shift toward leaner equity. Conversely, slow deployment past mid-2026 would indicate caution on housing fundamentals. The May 21 dividend payment will clarify whether MGIC runs dual-track capital return or eventually substitutes buybacks for dividend growth.
Rival Radian Group holds a $500 million buyback authorization approved in 2023, executed at roughly $150 million annually. MGIC's larger program and longer runway position it as the sector's most committed capital returner, assuming execution follows authorization. The test arrives when the next regional housing market softens and loss reserves require upward revision.
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For the principal
MGIC's multi-year buyback signals stable mortgage credit; worth tracking execution pace against housing softness in your regional exposure.
For the operator
Watch quarterly 10-Q filings for actual repurchase activity; slow execution past mid-2026 would indicate shifting underwriting assumptions on loss reserves.
For the house
Huang Goodman holds no MGIC position; authorization noted for housing credit desk as counter-signal to bearish residential sentiment in April portfolio review.
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