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Micron Technology$MU · filed: grew revenue 256% in FY2026 to $133.2BSound shipTrillion Score 472Fall Risk MediumNext year $169.5B–$725.7B sealedCheck ▾Close ▴
What Micron Technology filed
Grew revenue 256% in FY2026 to $133.2 billion, operating margin 74.6% against a 2.4% median for semiconductors & related devices, equity 70.6% of assets, and dividend per share up 1 year running. Every figure links to the filing it came from on Micron Technology’s card. Sound ship: one warning sign. Trillion Score 472, #64 of 107 in its field; Fall Risk Medium (how it is measured).
What the house said in advance
Revenue for the fiscal year after 2026-09-03 between $169.5B and $725.7B, an 80% range sealed on 9 Oct 2026 · receipt #8096ac · graded in public by the revenue in Micron Technology’s next annual report.
Figures as filed with the SEC. Ranges, scores and boats are statistical descriptions of past filings, not ratings or recommendations. Reporting, not advice.
In plain words
Micron locked **$250 billion** in US capex through 2035; subsidy drawdown risk and memory-market timing now determine whether the bet pays.
$250 billion
through 2035 and poured the first concrete foundation at…
$100 billion
disclosed in 2022—positions Micron as the largest private capital…
1,400 acres
near Syracuse
2028
production and full campus ramp scheduled through the mid-2030s
Micron Technology raised its domestic manufacturing commitment to more than $250 billion through 2035 and poured the first concrete foundation at its Clay, New York fabrication campus this week. The revised figure—up from $100 billion disclosed in 2022—positions Micron as the largest private capital allocator in the onshoring wave that followed the CHIPS and Science Act. The New York facility will anchor four fabs across 1,400 acres near Syracuse, with the first cleanroom targeted for 2028 production and full campus ramp scheduled through the mid-2030s.
The concrete pour is the first irreversible construction milestone after two years of site preparation, permitting, and subsidy negotiations. Micron secured $6.1 billion in direct CHIPS Act grants and $7.5 billion in federal loan authority in April 2024, with New York State adding $5.5 billion in tax credits and infrastructure support. The revised $250 billion envelope now includes capex for second-phase Texas fabs in Boise and an expanded timeline that aligns with Department of Commerce disbursement schedules. The increase reflects higher cleanroom construction costs—up 18-22% since 2022 estimates—and Micron's decision to accelerate advanced packaging lines that were originally slated for offshore facilities.
The capital commitment matters because it locks Micron into a domestic cost structure during a memory market trough. DRAM spot prices fell 34% year-over-year in the first half of 2025, and while high-bandwidth memory for AI systems commands premium pricing, commodity DRAM—Micron's legacy revenue base—remains oversupplied. The New York fabs will produce leading-edge DRAM nodes below 10 nanometers, but depreciation expense begins when the cleanrooms go live, not when demand recovers. Micron is effectively mortgaging the next decade of operating leverage to secure strategic subsidy dollars and reduce exposure to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company's geopolitical risk envelope. For allocators tracking the semiconductor cycle, this is a balance-sheet test: Micron's trailing free cash flow of $1.8 billion must service construction debt while Samsung and SK Hynix continue volume-driven price competition from lower-cost Asian fabs.
The subsidy structure also creates a new reporting layer. CHIPS Act grants disburse in tranches tied to construction milestones, workforce hiring targets, and domestic content thresholds. Micron must maintain 75% US-origin equipment and materials for qualifying capex and hit employment benchmarks—9,000 direct hires in New York and 20,000 across its US footprint by 2030—to unlock the full $6.1 billion federal allocation. Any supply chain disruption, labor shortage, or cost overrun that delays commissioning dates also delays grant receipts, tightening Micron's cash conversion cycle at exactly the wrong moment. The company has not disclosed contingency financing, but the $7.5 billion federal loan facility suggests Treasury is backstopping execution risk in exchange for strategic priority.
Watch Micron's quarterly capex guidance through 2026 for early signs of scope compression or timeline slippage. The first DRAM wafer from the New York cleanroom is scheduled for late 2028, giving the company 36 months to commission tooling and ramp yields before depreciation becomes a margin headwind. Monitor Samsung's capex in Pyeongtaek and SK Hynix's Yongin expansion—both are running ahead of Micron's timeline and will set the technology node bar for high-bandwidth memory before Clay comes online. Department of Commerce tranche releases, disclosed in Micron's 10-Q filings under "Government Incentives," will show whether the company is meeting interim benchmarks or negotiating deadline extensions. Any revision to the 9,000-hire target or shift in domestic content percentage signals tightening cost discipline.
The concrete is wet, the subsidies are allocated, and the only variable left is execution. Micron just turned a policy tailwind into a $250 billion obligation with a 2035 maturity.
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For the principal
Track Micron's CHIPS Act tranche releases in 10-Q filings; execution delays directly tighten cash flow before 2028 revenue ramp begins.
For the operator
Short-term memory oversupply versus long-term onshoring subsidy creates asymmetric risk; monitor Samsung and SK Hynix capex for competitive timing.
For the house
Neutral on Micron equity until 2028 fab ramp clarifies; prefer exposure through applied materials suppliers with shorter cycle visibility and subsidy pass-through.
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