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Oracle$ORCL · filed: grew revenue 17.3% in FY2026 to $67.4BSound shipTrillion Score 524Fall Risk MediumNext year $68.3B–$80.6B sealedCheck ▾Close ▴
What Oracle filed
Grew revenue 17.3% in FY2026 to $67.4 billion, operating margin 30.6% against a 0.9% median for prepackaged software, equity 16.2% of assets, and dividend per share up 18 years running. Every figure links to the filing it came from on Oracle’s card. Sound ship: one warning sign. Trillion Score 524, #109 of 311 in its field; Fall Risk Medium (how it is measured).
What the house said in advance
Revenue for the fiscal year after 2026-05-31 between $68.3B and $80.6B, an 80% range sealed on 24 Sept 2026 · receipt #d4afc6 · graded in public by the revenue in Oracle’s next annual report.
Figures as filed with the SEC. Ranges, scores and boats are statistical descriptions of past filings, not ratings or recommendations. Reporting, not advice.
In plain words
Oracle locked OpenAI inference revenue and raised cheap capital before April's GPU allocation window—AWS now has a margin problem.
18.4%
after announcing a direct infrastructure agreement with OpenAI's Project…
$10 billion
convertible note offering priced the same morning
$90 billion
in market capitalization
$500 billion
private infrastructure consortium announced in January with SoftBank
Oracle closed Thursday up 18.4% after announcing a direct infrastructure agreement with OpenAI's Project Stargate and a $10 billion convertible note offering priced the same morning. The equity move added roughly $90 billion in market capitalization, the largest single-session gain in Oracle's forty-two-year history. OpenAI committed to expand Oracle Cloud Infrastructure footprint under the Stargate framework—the $500 billion private infrastructure consortium announced in January with SoftBank, MGX, and Arm Holdings. Oracle will provision GPU clusters in existing Texas and Virginia data centers by Q3 2025, with incremental compute reserved for OpenAI's o3 reasoning models.
The convertible note carries a 0.75% coupon, converts at $225.16 per share (a 30% premium to Wednesday's close), and matures March 2030. Proceeds will fund data center construction and settle the existing $5.2 billion Oracle Cloud@Customer pipeline, where enterprise clients run Oracle infrastructure inside their own perimeters. Net leverage rises to 2.1x EBITDA—elevated for Oracle but inside the 2.5x covenant threshold management set in September. Timing matters: the note priced before Nvidia's H200 allocation freeze lifts in April, giving Oracle the capital to lock silicon while hyperscalers negotiate.
The market is paying for margin visibility three quarters forward. OpenAI's Stargate commitment converts speculative AI infrastructure spend into contracted revenue, something Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure have struggled to lock outside their proprietary model training. Oracle's cloud gross margin reached 75% in the December quarter, five hundred basis points above AWS, because Oracle leases bare GPU without subsidizing model fine-tuning. OpenAI's inference workloads are notoriously margin-dilutive when run on Azure—ChatGPT queries cost Microsoft roughly $0.36 per session at load. Oracle's architecture offloads the cost structure to the customer. Project Stargate's financing requires hardware ownership to stay off SoftBank's balance sheet, which makes Oracle the execution layer by default.
Allocators should watch Oracle's June quarter earnings for contracted Stargate revenue recognition and the pace of OCI consumption growth, which ran 54% year-over-year in December. If OpenAI activates reasoning-model inference on Oracle infrastructure this summer, AWS will face the first credible enterprise AI defection since the GPT-3 launch. SoftBank's next Stargate tranche—estimated $50 billion by September—determines whether Oracle remains the primary compute vendor or gets crowded by new entrants. Nvidia's April allocation release will clarify Oracle's silicon pipeline and whether the convertible proceeds were enough to corner H200 supply.
The convertible's dilutive overhang price cap sits at $225.16, roughly 7% above Friday's pre-market implied open of $211. That spread is the market pricing either faster Stargate deployment or multiple new Tier-1 AI infrastructure wins before conversion triggers.
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For the principal
The convertible's $225 cap creates a natural exit if Stargate deployment accelerates—watch June earnings for contracted revenue milestones.
For the operator
Oracle just became the infrastructure layer for reasoning models; track OCI consumption growth and Nvidia allocation confirmations through April.
For the house
We're watching the June quarter for Stargate recognition and considering LEAPs if OpenAI activates inference before AWS responds.
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