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Scholastic$SCHL · filed: saw revenue fall 2.7% in FY2026 to $1.6BNew shipTrillion Score 566Fall Risk MediumNext year $1.3B–$1.8B sealedCheck ▾Close ▴
What Scholastic filed
Saw revenue fall 2.7% in FY2026 to $1.6 billion, operating margin 1.0% against a 10.5% median for books: publishing or publishing & printing, equity 43.4% of assets. Every figure links to the filing it came from on Scholastic’s card. New ship: no warning signs. Trillion Score 566, #3 of 14 in its field; Fall Risk Medium (how it is measured).
What the house said in advance
Revenue for the fiscal year after 2026-05-31 between $1.3B and $1.8B, an 80% range sealed on 27 Sept 2026 · receipt #7f26ec · graded in public by the revenue in Scholastic’s next annual report.
Figures as filed with the SEC. Ranges, scores and boats are statistical descriptions of past filings, not ratings or recommendations. Reporting, not advice.
In plain words
**$200M** tender at up to **14%** premium tests whether Scholastic's publishing cash generation justifies sub-**8x** earnings multiple.
$200 million
of its common stock
$24.00
per share—a ceiling
14% above
the stock's Friday close of
$156 million
in operating cash flow over the trailing twelve months…
Scholastic Corporation announced a cash tender offer for up to $200 million of its common stock, the largest buyback commitment in the 103-year-old publisher's recent history. The modified Dutch auction runs through mid-February, with management setting a price range between $21.00 and $24.00 per share—a ceiling 14% above the stock's Friday close of $21.05.
The company generated $156 million in operating cash flow over the trailing twelve months while holding $287 million in cash against $91 million in debt as of November 2024. Free cash flow conversion rates have climbed from 64% to 78% since fiscal 2022, driven by inventory normalization following pandemic-era supply chain snarls. Revenue remains concentrated: the education and international segments account for 71% of the $1.65 billion annual run rate, with trade publishing—the Harry Potter backlist and Dav Pilkey franchises—throwing off disproportionate margins in the mid-teens.
The tender mechanism matters. Modified Dutch auctions let shareholders specify sale prices within the range, and the company clears at the lowest price that fills the $200 million envelope. If oversubscribed, Scholastic purchases pro rata. The structure creates a revealed-preference dataset: how many holders value the business below $24 versus holding for operational upside. The company has 31.2 million shares outstanding, so $200 million at the ceiling would retire roughly 27% of the float—a meaningful denominator shift for per-share metrics.
This follows eight consecutive quarters where Scholastic beat or met EBITDA guidance, yet the stock trades at 7.2x forward earnings, below the publishing peer median of 11.4x. The discount reflects structural concerns: print book unit sales declined 4% annually since 2019, and school library budgets face municipal funding pressure in 22 states per the American Library Association's January survey. Management is effectively saying the discount has overshot. The tender also preempts activist positioning—buybacks at premiums to market reset the cost basis for anyone building a stake.
Allocators should watch tender participation rates, disclosed within 10 business days of the February 18 expiration. Subscription above 150% of the offer size would signal widespread holder skepticism about near-term catalysts. Also watch April fiscal Q4 earnings for updated share count guidance and whether management extends the $100 million authorization remaining after this tender. The company's book fair business posts 63% of annual EBITDA in the back-to-school August-November window, so Q1 fiscal 2026 results in September will clarify whether this buyback proves well-timed or premature.
Scholastic has never tendered above $23 in prior buybacks. The $24 ceiling sits 3% below the stock's five-year volume-weighted average price, but 19% above the October 2023 low when market participants priced in permanent enrollment declines that have not materialized.
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