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**$15B** revenue, **22%** margins, but no Starship timeline leaves **$120** stock pricing two separate companies with one unproven.
$15.02 billion
in trailing twelve-month revenue and a
22.1%
EBITDA margin in its first earnings report as a…
$1.12
above the
$112
debut price
SpaceX disclosed $15.02 billion in trailing twelve-month revenue and a 22.1% EBITDA margin in its first earnings report as a public company, ending three weeks of post-IPO drift that left shares $1.12 above the $112 debut price. The report arrived without forward guidance, forcing allocators to model Starship economics and Starlink subscriber growth against a defense backlog the company valued at $8.3 billion but declined to schedule.
The revenue figure splits into $8.1 billion from Starlink subscriptions across 4.2 million terminals, $4.7 billion from NASA and Department of Defense launch contracts, and $2.2 billion from commercial launch services. Starship flew zero revenue missions in the reporting period. The company burned $1.8 billion in capital expenditures, roughly 70% toward Starship infrastructure at Boca Chica and Cape Canaveral. Operating cash flow registered $2.1 billion, implying the launch business subsidizes Starship development at a rate unsustainable past 2027 without meaningful Starship contract conversions.
The margin structure matters more than the top line. Starlink gross margins ran 41%, consistent with maturing satellite broadband economics, while launch services delivered 18% gross margins, compressing 340 basis points year-over-year as reusability gains plateau and fixed costs per mission rise with regulatory delays. Management noted eleven Starship test flights completed but provided no timeline for payload certification, the gate for $22 billion in announced customer deposits that remain non-refundable but unscheduled. The Defense Department holds $4.1 billion of that backlog, contingent on Starship achieving 95% mission success across twenty-four consecutive flights, a threshold the company has not publicly forecast.
The absence of guidance creates a $90–$210 per-share valuation range depending on Starship monetization assumptions. If payload certification arrives in Q3 2025 and the company converts 60% of deposits into revenue by 2027, the equity supports a $180–$195 fair value at 18–22x forward EBITDA. If certification slips past 2026 or the defense contracts restructure around capability milestones rather than deployment schedules, the stock trades closer to $95–$110 on Starlink and Falcon economics alone. The company's refusal to bracket these outcomes leaves family offices pricing existential execution risk into a business already generating $3.3 billion in free cash flow.
Allocators should track three items. First, NASA's Artemis IV contract award expected mid-May, which will clarify whether SpaceX wins the $3.7 billion lunar lander extension or splits the work with Blue Origin. Second, Starship payload insurance rates, currently unavailable commercially, which signal underwriter confidence and unlock the $18 billion in non-government deposits. Third, Starlink terminal shipments in Q2, where anything below 1.1 million units suggests saturation in developed markets before the company reaches its targeted 10 million subscriber base.
SpaceX next reports earnings July 28th. By then, Starship will have flown at least two more test missions, and the FAA will have ruled on the Boca Chica environmental assessment that governs launch cadence through 2026.
Branded by POPS4 · proof in 60 seconds
For the principal
Direct exposure requires conviction on Starship certification timing; consider 2–3% position sizing until payload insurance markets price the risk.
For the operator
Model two scenarios: Starlink-only at 12x EBITDA versus full-stack space infrastructure at 20x; the spread defines your entry.
For the house
Watching terminal shipment data and insurance markets; no named-account adds until Artemis IV award or commercial payload flight confirmed.
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