SpaceX stock closed below $135 for the first time Thursday, breaching the offering price set at its debut barely a week ago. The move puts Musk's aerospace and AI consolidation play into a familiar cohort: roughly 48% of IPOs above $1 billion valuation fall below their opening strike within the first quarter and remain underwater for 18 to 36 months, according to Renaissance Capital data spanning the past decade. Shares traded flat in premarket Friday at $134.80, down 2.1% from the May opening bell.

The dip mirrors Meta's 2012 trajectory, when the social platform priced at $38, fell to $17.55 within four months, and required 15 months to reclaim its IPO level. Allocators who held through that trough saw 340% returns by 2015, but the initial drawdown wiped out early momentum and forced four secondary offerings to stabilize the float. SpaceX's current float is 11% of total shares outstanding, a narrow base vulnerable to modest selling pressure. No secondary is scheduled, but two sources familiar with the desk said Musk's team has briefed underwriters on a potential $8 billion follow-on in Q4 if the stock fails to clear $150 by September.

The company's dual mandate — reusable orbital launch and AI infrastructure for xAI — creates valuation ambiguity. The $137 billion implied market cap at IPO priced in $12 billion in 2024 Starlink revenue and $4 billion from NASA and defense contracts, but assigned no explicit multiple to xAI compute capacity, now worth an estimated $18 billion in replacement cost. Credit Suisse and Jefferies both modeled a 22x forward EBITDA multiple, in line with aerospace comps, but ignored the AI optionality entirely. That conservative stance gave little room for near-term euphoria, and the stock is now trading at 19.8x forward EBITDA, a 10% discount to Boeing and Lockheed at comparable stages.

Operators should track three near-term catalysts. First, SpaceX's June 15 earnings call, where management is expected to disclose Starlink subscriber adds and xAI compute deployment timelines. Second, the NASA Artemis contract amendment due by July 1, which could add $2.7 billion in milestone payments through 2026. Third, the next Starship test flight, scheduled for late June, which carries $900 million in payload insurance and remains the technical gating factor for the FAA's commercial launch certification. A clean flight would likely push the stock back above $145 within 72 hours; a failure extends the trough.

The IPO was never designed for velocity. Musk priced at the low end of the $130-$145 range and left $1.2 billion on the table to ensure a stable anchor base. That base is now being tested, and the test is ordinary.