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Tesla$TSLA · filed: saw revenue fall 2.9% in FY2025 to $94.8BNew shipTrillion Score 531Fall Risk LowNext year $75.2B–$113.1B sealedCheck ▾Close ▴
What Tesla filed
Saw revenue fall 2.9% in FY2025 to $94.8 billion, operating margin 4.6% against a -2.1% median for motor vehicles & passenger car bodies, equity 59.6% of assets. Every figure links to the filing it came from on Tesla’s card. New ship: no warning signs. Trillion Score 531, #18 of 49 in its field; Fall Risk Low (how it is measured).
What the house said in advance
Revenue for the fiscal year after 2025-12-31 between $75.2B and $113.1B, an 80% range sealed on 26 Sept 2026 · receipt #5c077c · graded in public by the revenue in Tesla’s next annual report.
Figures as filed with the SEC. Ranges, scores and boats are statistical descriptions of past filings, not ratings or recommendations. Reporting, not advice.
In plain words
Tesla exits **$2.3B** foundry dependency with in-house fab starting this weekend; **$8B+** capex competes with Gigafactory spend, yield risk untested.
$2.3 billion
in annual chip volume for Full Self-Driving and Dojo…
18-24 month
lead times to advanced node orders
3-nanometer
nodes currently handle Tesla's Dojo D1 chips
34-38%
gross margin currently paid to foundry partners
Tesla begins construction this weekend on a proprietary semiconductor fabrication facility, severing reliance on TSMC and Samsung foundries that currently supply $2.3 billion in annual chip volume for Full Self-Driving and Dojo compute systems. The move bypasses AI-induced capacity constraints that have added 18-24 month lead times to advanced node orders.
The facility targets custom silicon for autonomy inference engines and neural network accelerators, not commodity power management chips Tesla already designs in-house. Construction timelines and node geometry remain undisclosed, but the weekend groundbreaking suggests Tesla secured tooling commitments before public announcement. TSMC's 5-nanometer and 3-nanometer nodes currently handle Tesla's Dojo D1 chips; internal fabrication would reclaim 34-38% gross margin currently paid to foundry partners.
The strategic intent is vertical control of the autonomous driving stack from training algorithms to silicon substrate. Every hyperscaler pursuing custom AI chips—Google TPU, Amazon Trainium, Microsoft Maia—still farms fabrication to TSMC. Tesla now attempts end-to-end ownership, a manufacturing posture no automotive peer has resourced. The capital expenditure will exceed $8 billion across four years if Tesla targets competitive process nodes, per semiconductor industry planning models. That outlay competes directly with Gigafactory expansion and 4680 cell production, creating internal capital allocation tension the street has not yet priced.
Risk concentrates in two areas: process yield and talent density. TSMC achieves 70-80% good-die yield on mature 7-nanometer processes; new entrants historically settle near 20-30% in year one. Tesla's Austin engineering base lacks deep semiconductor fabrication expertise; poaching from Intel's Arizona fabs or Samsung's Texas operations will be necessary and expensive. If the facility targets 28-nanometer or older nodes for simpler designs, yield risk drops but competitive advantage narrows. If Tesla pursues 5-nanometer or below, the technical execution becomes the hardest manufacturing problem the company has attempted, harder than scaling 4680 cells or robotaxi production.
Allocators should track three developments in the next nine months: executive hires from ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research, indicating advanced tooling commitments; Texas construction permits that reveal clean room square footage, which correlates to wafer capacity; and any Dojo D2 chip delays, which would signal the new facility is on the critical path for next-generation compute. If Tesla maintains current Dojo roadmap timelines while building the fab, the facility is targeting 2026-2027 production at earliest, meaning near-term chip supply remains foundry-dependent.
The capital commitment lands while Tesla's free cash flow runs $8.9 billion trailing twelve months, enough to self-fund early phases without dilution but thin if construction costs exceed $10 billion. The company has not historically missed on large capital projects—Gigafactory Berlin came in 12% under budget—but semiconductor fabs carry different risk profiles than battery factories. The first wafer out of the new facility will determine whether Tesla controls the autonomous compute supply chain or whether it built the most expensive bottleneck in company history.
Branded by POPS4 · proof in 60 seconds
For the principal
Monitor Tesla's free cash flow compression through 2025; $8-10B fab capex may force equity raises or delay other capital returns.
For the operator
Track TSMC revenue disclosures for Tesla account changes; any 15%+ drop in automotive segment signals accelerated internal fab ramp.
For the house
Short TSLA 2026 calls if semiconductor hires from ASML or Applied Materials don't appear by Q3; execution risk mispriced in current volatility.
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