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Markets EdgeJOHNNIE BLUEMay 21, 20262 min readAd-free
Ultra-Luxury Real Estate Clears $180B in 2025 Sales Across Four US Markets
South Florida, Southwest Florida, Tri-Cities Washington, and New York posted record volumes while median-tier inventory accumulated.
Markets Edge deskMarkets Edge · Huang Goodman
In plain words
Ultra-luxury real estate cleared **$180B** across four US markets in 2025, driven by wealth concentration and inventory scarcity while median-tier volume contracted.
$180 billion
across properties priced above
$10 million
The performance diverged sharply from broader residential metrics
$47.2 billion
in transactions above
23 percent
increase year-over-year
Four geographically distinct US ultra-luxury markets—South Florida, Southwest Florida, Tri-Cities Washington, and New York—collectively recorded all-time high transaction volumes in 2025, with total sales exceeding $180 billion across properties priced above $10 million. The performance diverged sharply from broader residential metrics, where inventory-to-sales ratios climbed to 6.8 months nationally, the highest reading since 2011.
South Florida led absolute volume, clearing $47.2 billion in transactions above $10 million, a 23 percent increase year-over-year. Southwest Florida, anchored by Naples and Sarasota, posted $18.6 billion in comparable sales, up 19 percent. Tri-Cities Washington—Richland, Kennewick, Pasco—recorded $2.1 billion in ultra-luxury closings, a 34 percent surge driven by tech-sector wealth migration. Manhattan and the Hamptons combined for $112.3 billion, with $10 million-plus units moving at a 14 percent faster clip than 2024. The median days-on-market for properties above $20 million contracted to 87 days across these regions, down from 134 days in 2023.
The divergence maps to wealth concentration mechanics, not sentiment. The top 0.1 percent of US households now control $22.4 trillion in net worth, up $3.7 trillion since January 2023, per Federal Reserve flow-of-funds data. Equity market gains, private exit liquidity, and carried-interest realizations created a $480 billion annual tailwind for ultra-high-net-worth buyers, insulating demand from mortgage-rate moves that constrained middle-tier activity. Properties priced between $500,000 and $2 million saw volume contract 11 percent nationally in the same period, while listings above $15 million cleared at acquisition prices within 6 percent of ask, the tightest spread since 2007.
The supply side tightened in parallel. New construction starts for homes exceeding 10,000 square feet dropped 22 percent in 2024, as entitlement delays and builder-margin compression shifted capital toward multifamily projects. Existing owners in the $10 million-plus cohort held mortgages with sub-4 percent rates locked before 2022, creating a lock-in effect that reduced inventory turnover. The result: 1,847 active listings above $10 million across the four markets as of December 2025, down from 2,634 in December 2023, a 30 percent contraction. Tri-Cities Washington recorded the sharpest drop, with just 63 available units above $5 million, versus 142 two years prior.
Allocators should track three follow-on signals over the next six months. First, equity-market volatility above 20 VIX for more than 60 consecutive days historically correlates with ultra-luxury transaction-volume drops of 18-24 percent within two quarters. Second, New York's transfer-tax proposals under the current legislative session could add 2.5 percent in closing costs for transactions above $25 million, accelerating pull-forward demand into Q1 2026. Third, Southwest Florida permitting data will clarify whether luxury builders resume ground-up starts or exit the segment entirely; permit filings dropped 41 percent year-over-year through November 2025.
The millionaire factory printed 683,000 new US households with liquid net worth above $5 million in 2025, per Capgemini wealth surveys. They bought houses accordingly.
Branded by POPS4 · proof in 60 seconds
For the principal
Monitor New York transfer-tax legislation and equity-volatility thresholds; 20-plus VIX sustained for 60 days historically triggers 18-24 percent ultra-luxury volume contraction.
For the operator
Watch Southwest Florida permit filings and Manhattan $25M-plus transaction velocity into Q1 2026; pull-forward demand could create temporary alpha in luxury REIT sectors.
For the house
Huang Goodman trimmed direct luxury-REIT exposure 220 basis points in named accounts; reallocated toward New York opportunity-zone debt with Q2 2026 refinancing catalysts.
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